以Covid 19疫情重新檢視經濟韌性影響因子──以我國的北部區域為例

Re-examining the Impact Factors of Economic Resilience with the Covid-19 Epidemic–Taking Northern Taiwan as an Example

在全球化發展之下，跨域交通來往頻繁，雖帶動了全球城市的繁榮發展，卻也使都市內人類活動高度集中，為各區域的發展帶來了空間異質性。許多研究表明，都市發展的特徵會影響其經濟韌性展現，惟過去研究多聚焦於金融衝擊造成之影響。本研究因而透過Covid-19疫情，檢視製造業佔比、人口流動率、產業研發投入，以及公共設施完善程度等都市發展特徵，在不同種類衝擊事件之下，對經濟韌性展現之影響差異。透過我國北部區域在2020年疫情期間之經濟韌性計算結果，以及皮爾森積動差相關係數分析結果顯示，製造業佔比與研究發展投入越高的地區，越具經濟韌性；而人口流動率與公共設施面積比例較高的地區，在本次疫情中則較不易於展現經濟韌性，判斷係因民眾為降低傳染風險，而避免出入接觸機率高的地區，使該區域的消費意願降低，並連帶影響該地區之經濟表現。本研究的研究成果顯示，經濟韌性之影響因子，會因衝擊事件性質不同而有所差異，故政策制定者往後在制定因應衝擊之相關政策時，應將衝擊事件之性質納入考量。

Under the development of globalization, frequent cross-regional traffic exchanges have led to the prosperity and development of cities around the world, but they have also resulted in a high concentration of human activities in cities, bringing spatial heterogeneity to the development of various cities. Many studies have shown that the characteristics of urban can affect the performance of its economic resilience, but past research has mostly focused on the impact of financial shocks. Therefore, through the Covid-19 pandemic, this study examines the differences in the impact of urban characteristics such as the proportion of manufacturing, population mobility, industrial R&D investment, and public facilities on the performance of economic resilience under Covid-19. According to the calculation results of economic resilience in northern Taiwan during the pandemic in 2020, and the analysis results of Pearson correlation coefficient, it is shown that the higher the proportion of manufacturing industry and the higher investment in R&D, the more resilient the economy is. Areas with a high ratio of population mobility to public facility area are less likely to demonstrate economic resilience in this pandemic. It is judged that the reason is that in order to reduce the risk of infection, the public avoids entering and leaving areas with a high probability of contact, which increases the willingness to consume in the area. decrease, which in turn affects the economic performance. The research results of this study show that the impact factors of economic resilience will vary according to the nature of shock events. Therefore, policymakers should take the nature of shock events into consideration when formulating relevant policies to deal with shocks in the future.