中共海上「灰色地帶」戰略的研究：「混合戰」的觀點

A Study of CCP’s Maritime“Gray Zone”Strategy: A“Hybrid Warfare”Perspective

中共海上「灰色地帶」戰略的發展，運用軍民融合動員，整合非軍事資源共享，海上拒止避免逾越軍事衝突閾值，靈活運作包括東海低強度衝突與南海填礁造島建構前進基地，並建立吉布地海外基地。依據《2010 美國4年期國防總檢討報告》美軍提出關切敵方「混合戰」的工具，探討中共發揮各部分海上「灰色地帶」戰略，獲取有利的政治目的的方式。首先，控管爭端漸進發展，形成軍事戰略對西太平洋區域不對稱的優勢。其次，把握要領海上規避美軍的衝突，運用「混合戰」工具對抗美國與臺灣的準備。最後，待獲得「既成事實」海軍現代化近海區域實力優勢的利益，確保必須軍事力量求戰美國時，致力於最終獲得勝利。

The development of the CCP’s maritime “gray zone” strategy uses military-civilian integration and mobilization. The strategy integrates non-military resource sharing, avoids crossing the threshold of military conflicts at sea, operates flexibly including low-intensity conflicts in the East China Sea, land reclamation in the South China Sea to build forward bases, and establishing an overseas base in Djibouti. This article explores the ways in which the CCP used various parts of its maritime “gray zone” strategy to understand how it attained favorable political goals, based on the concerns raised by the U.S. military in the U.S.’s “Quadrennial Defense Review Report February 2010,” about the enemy’s “hybrid warfare” tools. First of all, in order to control and manage the development of disputes gradually, the CCP formed an asymmetric advantage in its military strategy over the Western Pacific region. Secondly, the CCP grasps the essentials to avoid conflicts with the U.S. military at sea and prepares to use “hybrid warfare” tools to confront the U.S. and Taiwan. Finally, when the benefits of the “fait accompli” of China’s naval modernization and offshore area strength advantages are obtained, and it has attained the necessary military power to fight the United States, the CCP will be committed to the ultimate victory.