中共「二十大」政治菁英甄補：趨勢與反思

The CCP’s Elite Recruitment of the 20th Party Congress: Trends and Reconciliations

2022年10月16日中共召開「二十大」，並於10月23日公布政治局委員人選。由於中共專政體制的封閉性與不透明性，以及習近平對政治菁英甄補任人唯親偏好，高層政治菁英甄補人選預測困難。
透過「十六大」至「二十大」菁英政治分析，有助解讀中共政治繼承、菁英甄補、派系政治與權力結構。尤其是習在「反腐」鬥爭、2017年推動任期修憲、改變人事甄補規範，以及個人偏好和愛將、部屬的引用，皆促成中共高層政治菁英結構調整。中共「二十大」習近平掌控人事安排絕對主導權，團派和「上海幫」影響力排除，難以參與重大決策。
本文透過多元迴歸分析，解讀「十六大」至「二十大」菁英篩選預測與反思，以及「二十大」前後比較分析，將有助於提升菁英人事研判的準確性。研究顯示，若依傳統加權估算準確度僅達六成左右，但經過調整變數和加權，精準率可提升近九成。未來可透過此機制測算具潛力之政治菁英，從而有助瞭解中共菁英政治發展與變遷趨勢。

On October 16, 2022, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its 20th Party Congress, during which the political elites were selected. One week later, the CCP announced the members of the Politburo. However, it can be extremely difficult to predict the selection of high-level political elites due to the closed and opaque nature of the CCP’s authoritarian system and Xi Jinping’s preferences in selecting political elites.
Through an analysis of the elite promotions from the 16th to the 20th Party Congress, this article aims to help in understanding the political inheritance, elite selection, factional politics, and power structure within the CCP. In particular, Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, the constitutional amendment in 2017 to remove term limits, changes to personnel selection rules, and personal preferences to trusted subordinates have led to significant adjustments in the CCP’s high-level political elites. At the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping had absolute control over personnel arrangements, while the influence of the“Shanghai clique”and the Communist Youth League faction has been weakened, making it difficult for them to participate in major decision-making.
This article uses multiple regression analyses to interpret the elite selection and prediction of Politburo members from the 16th to the 20th Party Congress, and compares the predicted results before and after the 20th Party Congress, which can improve the accuracy of predictions. The study shows that the traditional regression only achieves an accuracy rate of around 60%, but the accuracy rate can be improved to nearly 90% after properly adjusting variables and weighting. This approach can be used to predict potential elite promotions and increase understandings of the development and trends of CCP elite politics.