以雙層差別定價模型分析捷運系統尖峰擁擠問題

A Bilevel Differential Pricing Model to Analyze the Peak Crowding Problem of an MRT System

本研究針對捷運系統尖峰時段擁擠問題，以雙層數學規劃模型為基礎，發展捷運系統差別定價模式，分析實施差別定價策略後，乘客在預定到達時間為同質性下出發時間的轉移行為，模式上層為求解系統總成本最低之下的差別定價策略，下層為隨機使用者均衡指派模型，模式中將排程延遲成本、擁擠成本、平均排隊時間及票價納入一般化認知成本。在實證研究方面，本研究以臺北捷運系統藍線為例，評估在收入中立的假設下，實施差別定價政策對乘客需求轉移效果，並分析差別定價策略對票箱收入之影響。研究結果顯示，實施差別定價策略後能有效改善系統總成本，同時也降低乘客在月台上的平均排隊時間及車廂內的擁擠成本，達到透過差別定價策略人流尖峰分散的目的。

To resolve the peak crowding problem of an MRT system, this study develops a bilevel differential pricing model to analyze passenger departure time behaviors of heterogeneous users under different scheduled arrival time conditions. The objective of the upper level is to minimize total system cost. The lower level is a stochastic user equilibrium assignment model, where the perceived generalized cost function includes: schedule delay cost, crowding cost, expected waiting time, and transit fare. This study conducts a case study using the Blue line of the Taipei MRT network to evaluate effects of different pricing strategies on the peak spreading of passenger demand under a revenue-neutral assumption. The numerical analysis results indicate that the implementation of the revenue-neutral differential pricing policy can effectively reduce the total system cost, expected queueing time on the platform, and the crowding cost in the carriage, which ultimately achieves the peak spreading goal through implementing a differential pricing strategy.