重新檢視21世紀美「中」國力比較：以修改後的克萊恩公式為途徑

Re-examining the Comparison of National Power between the United States and China in the 21st Century by Using a Modified Cline’s Formula

近年來中國大陸實力的快速崛起，引發了許多學者對於美「中」之間是否會落入「修昔底德陷阱」的討論，但兩國的國力差距究竟為何？許多學者有不同的評估方式。克萊恩公式是使國力評估步入量化研究階段，最具代表性的公式之一，本文擬將克萊恩公式中之各項變數，改造為資料取得容易，無需進行再評定的可量化指標進行計算，並以某一國占世界比例之方式呈現。
另外，由於軟實力也是國家權力的重要來源之一，以往現實主義者所強調的硬實力，已無法完全反映國家的權力情形，因此本文也將軟實力納入國力評估的計算之中。本文以改造公式計算美「中」兩國近20年來的國力發現，美「中」兩國的國力差距在20年間已快速拉近，大陸國力可能在2033至2049年間將追上美國。

In recent years, the national power of Mainland China is on the rise rapidly, leading to much academic discussion on whether the U.S. and China are heading toward a Thucydides Trap. Nevertheless, the difference between their national power remains a topic of interest to many. As such, numerous scholars have used different assessment methods in this regard. The Cline’s formula is one of the most iconic formulae in the quantitative research of national power assessment. This study plans to utilize and modify different variables in the Cline’s formula to facilitate the acquisition of data. Hence, no calculation of quantitative re-assessed indicators is required. Each item is presented as a percentage of the whole world.
Meanwhile, soft power is also an important source of national power. Hard power, which used to be highly regarded by realists, can no longer reflect the national power of a country in a comprehensive manner. As such, this study will also incorporate soft power in its calculation of national power assessment. Following a calculation of the national power for the past 20 years using the modified Cline's formula, the study finds that the gap between the U.S. and China is rapidly narrowing. The national power of Mainland China will catch on to that of the U.S between 2033 and 2049.