民粹威權主義與習近平的民主話語：文字探勘方法的應用

Populist Authoritarianism and Xi Jinping’s Discourse about Democracy: An Application of Text-Mining Methods

當前中共領導人如何談論民主？民主話語的敘事邏輯為何？民主敘事又如何作為黨政治宣傳的一部分？本文採用文字探勘方法分析習近平的民主話語。本研究結合中共意識形態與體制傳統、改革開放時期的調整與習近平的對外作為等面向發展習近平的民主敘事框架，並帶入民粹威權主義來解釋其民主敘事。研究素材以所選官方出版文本中涵蓋「民主」的段落為語料庫，本研究採用「字詞－主題」分析途徑，主要發現如下：第一，預設敘事框架中各項要素內涵皆能與字詞分析、主題模型的結果有所對應。其次，「人民／群眾路線」字詞被大量使用，但較少用於傳達特定主題。最後，「鞏固統治正當性民主敘事」、「提昇國際影響力民主敘事」皆獲得字詞共現分析、主題模型分析的支持，代表習近平民主敘事的工具性意義。本文採用文字探勘方法，並帶入民粹威權主義觀點勾勒習近平的民主敘事，研究發現應能有助於理解中共建構政治敘事的策略，並探詢其政治宣傳目的。

This paper applies text-mining methods to analyze Xi Jinping’s discourse about democracy. It develops a narrative framework for Xi’s discourse by considering the CCP’s conventional ideology and system, the adjustments made in the reform era, and Xi’s foreign policy. It also adopts populist authoritarianism to explain it. The empirical materials were from the corpus of Xi’s Selected Works that contain the term “democracy”. By employing the “term-topic” approach, this study demonstrates that all the elements of the proposed framework are identifiable from both results of term analyses and topic models. Also, terms related to the “mass line” are frequently used but they do not work as effective in constructing concepts/topics to express. Lastly, the proposed narratives of democracy that serve for strengthening regime legitimacy and increasing international influence can be supported by the empirical findings, reflecting that Xi’s discourse about democracy is instrumental. By applying text-mining methods, this paper brings in populist authoritarianism to outline Xi Jinping’s narrative of democracy. The findings contribute to our understanding of the CCP’s strategy for constructing political narratives and its political propaganda purposes.