東亞經濟軸心與東協發展：以紡織業為例

Evolution of East Asian Economic Hubs and Development of the ASEAN Economic Community: The Case of the Textile Industry

本研究以軸心輻緣分析法分三層面探討紡織業東亞區域整合態勢。首先觀察東協個別國家之地位，再將東協視為單一經濟體，最後進入東協內部，檢視其結構變遷。實證結果發現，中國在上游和中游居主軸心地位，東協高度整合後，成為上游與中游的次軸心，降低中國獨強地位。東協內部則以印尼為主軸心。越南居次，且軸心指數穩定上升，未來發展大有可為。過去文獻多僅分析區域軸心的移轉，本文則檢視區域軸心與輻緣整體架構之演進。並考慮生產垂直整合關係，依上中下游透析各國在區域生產鏈的角色變化，完整呈現區域整合的動態調整過程。

This article applies the hubness measure of Baldwin (2008) and regional hub and spoke indices developed by D.-S. Huang, Y.-Y. Huang and Sun (2017) to investigate the hub-and-spoke structural changes in the East Asian region. Taking the case of the textile industry, we trace the trends of regional production integration and the role changes of its members as hubs and spokes. Three aspects are discussed. First, the regional hub and spoke indices are computed for the 11 East Asian economies to demonstrate the interdependent relationships among them. Second, the ASEAN economic community (AEC) is treated as a single economy to see how it affects regional production. Third, the inner structure of AEC is examined. Different from most of the literature analyzing only the shifts of regional hubs, we trace the transfers of both regional hubs and spokes of the up-, mid- and downstream sectors to fully reveal the changes in regional vertical integration. The results show that China steadily played the role of leading hub in the up- and midstream textile industries. The advantages of scale economy make the integrated AEC the second regional hub, and the difference in importance between China and AEC has gradually narrowed. Hong Kong has remained the regional spoke due to its high dependence on China. Inside AEC, Indonesia remained the leading hub. Malaysia had played the second leading role but was surpassed by Vietnam in later years.