試論台海地區的新安全

A New Strategic Thinking for Cross-Strait Relations

本論文的主要目的在於探討兩岸關係於2008年快速改善之後，台海地區是否需要新的安全觀來進行學術研究和政策評估。為了解這種概念的必要性，了解兩岸關係的改變及其可能的影響是必要的。本文在新舊安全觀上做了比較，也進行了簡要的分析。新安全觀主要是根基於兩岸關係在2008年趨向穩定之後，和平期待的出現，及兩岸關係經由20年以上的交往所形成的民間脈絡社會而形塑的新關係。
新安全觀的主要內涵是：（1）台海的安全是建立在現狀的和平、穩定及交往。（2）兩岸關係的廣度及深度大幅提升之後，台灣要去維持內部共識、維持一個和諧的社會。（3）兩岸關係不是「芬蘭化」，而是先以經濟為主的「台灣化」，逐漸變成雙方共同追求現代化。（4）兩岸關係應該重視非傳統安全的問題，和區域國家去積極處理和解決。
本文認為台海的戰火並未熄滅，但安全維護要比戰爭更為急迫，其中又以非傳統安全最為明顯。新安全觀的提出主要是要維持現狀，繼續形塑一個安全的環境讓民眾安居樂業、兩岸關繼續往前順利發展。新安全觀有其風險及機會，不過卻有考慮的必要。本文最後的結論是，要消滅你的對手並非難事，而和你的對手和平相處才真不容易，古今中外皆是如此。

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the need for adopting a new strategic thinking after the rapid improvement of cross-Strait relations after 2008. An analysis of the changing cross-Strait relations is needed to facilitate the discussion. This paper also compares the old strategic thinking to the new one which reflects the changes of international and regional politics and cross-Strait relations after 2008.
There are four elements immanent in the new thinking: (1) The stability in the strait area is based on the peace of the status quo, security and engagements. (2) After the expansion and development of cross-Strait relations, Taiwan needs to maintain its internal consensus so as to forge a harmonious society. (3) The nature of cross-Strait relations is not “Finlandization”, but “Taiwanization” with the economics as its core and then the common drive toward modernization by both sides of the strait. (4) Both sides should pay special attention to non-traditional security issues and work closely with other countries in the region.
This paper also explains the fundamental purpose of searching for a new strategic thinking, that is, to maintain the status quo and provide the basic rationale for a new cross-Strait policy from Taiwan’s perspective. The possibility of war still exists in the Taiwan Strait area, but to maintain security is more urgent than fighting a war. To live peacefully with your rivals is more difficult than defeating them.