小國外交——蒙古對中政策評析

Small State Foreign Policy Analysis: Mongolia’s China Policy

作為陸鎖國的蒙古，夾在中俄兩大強權之間，又在經濟層面高度依賴中國的投資與援助。在此先天不利的條件之下，蒙古如何發展其對外大戰略以確保國家安全與發展，又政策效果如何，是為本文最主要的研究問題。本研究從學者吳本立建立的不對稱關係理論出發，憑藉該理論提供的分析框架，將焦點擺在蒙古與中國的雙邊關係，並著眼於蒙中關係的歷史以及各項影響因素，以及當代蒙中關係的特點以進行分析，探討蒙古在面對中國時所遭遇的明顯不對稱權力結構如何影響其對中政策的制定。另一方面，本文同時回顧國際關係理論中的小國外交政策分析研究群組的成果，並引用當前該理論群組最為熱門的「智慧國」外交之概念，用以探究蒙古為跳脫陸鎖國的地緣政治之限制所發展出的策略，是否符合智慧國外交的訴求。本文爬梳蒙古自冷戰結束之後的對中政策與對外政策脈絡（包含第三鄰國政策、仲裁者／和平掮客角色的應用，以及單一國家作為非核武地帶的身分），得出以下結論：蒙古雖然在經濟層面極為依賴中國，但是其確實成功地發展出智慧國外交策略，使其超越陸鎖國身分的限制，而大大提升蒙古在國際舞台的地位，受到各個關鍵大國的重視，因而獲得更多與中國互動時的籌碼，而使得不對稱關係也能有利於蒙古的安全與發展。

Wondering how a state established in the least advantageous geopolitical environment develops its grand strategy for national security and development, this manuscript adopts the analytical frame of the Theory of Asymmetric Relations (which is made by Brantly Womack) and several key concepts provided by the Small State Foreign Policy Analysis (SSFPA) to investigate the landlocked Mongolia. The mainstreams analyses have assumed that the landlocked Mongolia can only follow whatever orders given by its donor-state(s). Nevertheless, the SSFPA researchers have initiated the new concept, Smart State Strategy, which aims at inspiring the small states to win over the competitions with great powers by creative policy making. Hence, this article also investigates whether or not Mongolia’s foreign policy also fits with the definition of Smart State Strategy. The case study of this research finds that: although highly relying on the aids and financial supports provided by Beijing, Mongolia remains its sovereign integrity and autonomy. Moreover, Mongolia is able to enhance its international status through the policies including Third Neighbor Policy, taking the role as Peace Broker, and making itself the so far only Single State as Nuclear-Weapons-Free-Zone. Mongolia is able to develop the abovementioned three key strategies to make its status not only recognized but also respected and protected by the international institutions.