印度與東協國家的交往：歷史、現狀與問題

The India-ASEAN Relationship: Historical Legacies, Current Development and Potential Issues

2017年是印度和東協建立對話夥伴關係25週年，也是雙方建立高峰會夥伴關係15週年以及戰略伙伴關係建立5週年。本文以三個層次呈現印度和東協的關係發展。在第一部分以歷史方法追溯了自冷戰時期以來印度和東南亞國家及東協的交往，在第二部分以公開數據分析了印度「東進政策」下印度和不同東南亞國家雙邊關係的結構，而在第三部分則以相對微觀的角度，探討了印度對東協政策的幾個面向，同時分析了執行上的相關問題。印度在1991年為了解決自身的經濟問題，進一步對外開放市場而實行的「東望政策」（Look East Policy）以及莫迪時代更名的「東進政策」（Act East Policy），多年來在雙邊和多邊的制度建構上取得了極大的進展。但在交往廿多年後，種種問題也開始浮現。首先，印度的東進政策在結構上仍然太過倚重特定國家，東進政策的執行也往往落後時程，這一點在面對中國「一帶一路」挑戰的時候更顯迫切。印度的政治文化在多邊和雙邊層面，給印度和東協的聯通性合作、安全事務的整合，以及經貿關係的進一步深化都帶來了影響。這也將為印度及東協接下來的整合，帶來無可避免的挑戰。

The year 2017 marks the 25th anniversary of the India-ASEAN Dialogue Partnership as well as the 5th anniversary of their Strategic Partnership. How has the India-ASEAN relationship developed in the past years? In this paper, I explore the development of India-ASEAN relationship at three levels of analysis. In the first level, the historical method is used to trace the India-ASEAN relationship since the Cold War period. In the second level, their relationship as well as bilateral patterns of interactions is analyzed by quantitative methods with open data. In the third level, I discuss several essential aspects of India's policy towards ASEAN as well as the implementation. India's ''Look/Act East Policy'' beginning in 1991 has made great progress over the years especially on the bilateral and multilateral arrangements with ASEAN countries. However, after all these years issues begin to emerge. First, India's ''Act East Policy'' still relies on specific countries, and the implementation tends to lag behind the schedule especially when compared with China’s ''Belt and Road Initiative.'' Second, India's political culture and domestic politics, at the multilateral and bilateral levels, have had an impact on the promotion of security and political relations and the deepening of economic and trade cooperation. Both will inevitably bring challenges to the further collaboration between India and ASEAN.