安倍二次執政的對俄政策及俄羅斯的回應

The Second Abe Administration’s Policy Towards Russia and Russia’s Response

安倍晉三於2012年底再度回任首相職位，上任後面臨兩大議題：國家正常化及北方領土返還。安倍首相在政策選擇上傾向先選擇恢復軍事力量的主導權，從而走向「正常國家」的選項。此舉必須獲得美國的支持或至少是不反對，於是，日本先塑造「假想敵」，強調中國威脅，進而加強美日安保關係，導致日本必須追隨美國外交政策。但安倍首相並沒有放棄與俄親善的道路，於是在恢復軍事力量的主導權一事上稍有進展後，便力圖修補與俄羅斯的關係。安倍首相在其上任之初，放棄與俄羅斯親近的機會，隨後追隨西方國家對俄制裁。最後在其政策選擇並未完成或無法再向前推展後，才又向俄羅斯招手，似乎已完全錯失先機。

Mr. Shinzo Abe regained prime minister in the end of 2012, and he faced critical two issues immediately. One is state normalization; the other is return of Northern Territory. Prime Minister Abe first chose to restore dominance of military power, leading Japan marching to “normal state”. This dream should get U.S. support or not oppose it at least. And then, Japan should create “an imaginary enemy”, that is, Japan highlights threats from China and enhances Japan-U.S. relations. This concept results in Japan following U.S. foreign policy. But Prime Minister Abe didn’t abandon close to Russia. When he got one step in restoring dominance of military power, he tried to repair chill relations with Russia. Abe gave up chance to close to Russia when he took office, following Western countries to sanction Russian. Not moving forward in his choice of foreign policy, Abe returns to shake hands with Russia. It seems that he miscalculates.