日本安倍政府的北韓政策：斯德哥爾摩協議及其未來展望

Japan's North Korea Policy under the Abe Administration: The Stockholm Agreement and its Future Prospects

日本首相安倍試圖在美國全球戰略關係的架構下推動被綁架日本人的外交，日朝關係的未來決定於美韓如何回應日朝關係改善解決被綁架日本人的問題；其次，日朝關係是日本如何獲得被綁架日本人的調查結果。未來日本的對朝鮮政策取決於安倍首相的意志以及其政治基礎是否穩固，尤其是當美國要求日本改變對朝鮮政策以及日本輿論對調查結果不滿的情緒增加時。本文主旨是剖析日本與北韓何以會在2014年5月簽署斯德哥爾摩（Stockholm）協議以及從與美國的關係探討日本與北韓關係的未來前景。首先將日本對北韓政策概念化為反應式交往（responsive engagement），並釐清政策目標與操作準則。然後，探討日本對北韓外交政策的結構限制，即國際、雙邊與國內因素。第三節則是剖析安倍第二任政府的日本北韓政策，此時期最大特徵是簽署斯德哥爾摩協議。此節從反應式交往角度解析何以日本與北韓就被綁架日本人問題達成協議以及兩國未來關係。

Since Prime Minister Abe took office in December 2012, Japan and North Korea have engaged in intermittent negotiations. First, Japan and North Korea held an exchange of views at the director level, seizing the opportunity afforded by the two rounds of Japan-North Korea Red Cross Talks held March 3, and 19-20, 2014. Next, Japan-North Korea government-level consultations were held on March 30-31 51 for the first time in the nearly fourteen months since November 2012. Then, another round of Japan and North Korea government-level consultations took place in Stockholm from May 26 to 28. As a result of these consultations, on May 29, 2014, North Korea agreed to conduct comprehensive and full-scale investigations of all Japanese nationals, including abductees, while Japan consented to ease some of its unilateral measures against North Korea once North Korea established its Special Investigation Committee and began its probe.