「東協加一」的貿易創造與貿易轉向效果之研究

The Study of the Trade Creation Effect and Trade Diversion Effect of ''CAFTA''

「東協加一」已於2010年元旦啟動，此自由貿易區約十九億人口，與全球的貿易總額高達4.5兆美元，約占全球貿易額的13.4%；且「東協加一」的產值僅次歐洲聯盟（EU）和北美自由貿易區（NAFTA），是全球第三大的自由貿易，因此「東協加一」在國際整合中，備受矚目。根據國際貿易理論，各國可透過區域經濟整合，來消除貿易障礙以及降低交易成本，進而提高各國的靜態福利效果。本研究利用1995至2010年間118國的追蹤資料（Panel Data），並採用Koenker（2004）之分量迴歸法（Quantile Regression）探討東協的貿易創造與貿易轉向效果。實證結果顯示：「東協加一」的成立非但未造成貿易轉向現象，且還產生可觀的貿易創造效果，且貿易量愈高其貿易創造效果也愈大。

CAFTA was activated on the New Year's Day of 2010. In this free trade area, there is an approximate 1.9 billion population and over US$4.5 trillion total value of global trading, which shares 13.4% of overall global trading volume. As the third largest free trading area in the world, the output value of ''CAFTA'' is only second to EU and NAFTA, therefore the international integration of ''CAFTA'' is highly anticipated. According to the theory of international trade, by regional economic integration, countries may eliminate trading barriers and further reduce transaction costs, thereby increase the static welfare efficiency domestically. This study discusses the trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of ''CAFTA'' through quantile regression analysis of Koenker (2004), using the panel data from 118 countries between 1995 and 2010. The empirical result indicates that the establishment of the free trade zone of ''CAFTA'' not only didn't cause the trade diversion effect, but also generated significant trade creation effect, furthermore, higher volume of trade results in larger trade creation effect.