普欽時期俄羅斯軍售中國政策的轉變因素探討：國家安全層面的分析

A Study of Russian Arms Sales Policy towards China and Its Transformation - Through a National Security Approach

2000至2006年期間，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策的決策考量受到中國對俄羅斯國家安全之因素的制約。俄國決定從不出售高科技武器到銷售精密武器給中國的政策轉變，乃是基於俄國的國家利益及俄國的整體地緣政治等因素制約驅使所致。由於俄國採取親美以削弱親中勢力的政策，2002年簽訂俄美削減攻擊性戰略武器條約（Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, STORT），並建立了美俄戰略夥伴關係，俄國此舉乃是為了要擺脫中國之戰略羈絆。使俄國得以藉由軍售中國制衡美中關係，從而牽制中美兩國，因此在俄國與美交好之際，普欽為了擺脫中國的戰略羈絆且與美國交好的情況下，普欽藉由軍售中國的高科技武器來安撫及穩定俄中關係。同時由於俄羅斯當前的外交策略是東西並重，而非過去的一面倒向西方，因此俄國需軍售高科技武器給中國做為拉攏中國的策略，以增加俄羅斯對西方世界談判的籌碼，而北約東擴（NATO Expand toward Eastern）的議題嚴重影響到俄羅斯的國家安全，在這種情形之下俄羅斯只好拉攏中國與印度以保障自身的安全，藉此增加與美國戰略和解的談判空間。俄國基於考慮以印度制衡中國，因此俄國提供印度較為先進的武器是為了可以牽制中國的勢力，因此，本文旨在透過地緣政治研究途徑與國家安全研究途徑分析2000年到2006年普欽時期俄羅斯軍售中國政策的轉變，本文首先分析與檢視俄總統普欽任內的俄國各項軍售中國政策，其次探討俄國各項軍售中國政策的國家安全國素，檢視中國軍購俄國武器對於俄國的國家安全的影響，本文發現俄國為了避免軍售中國對俄國的安全造成威脅，俄國在軍售中國時，刻意限制武器的投射能力，此舉乃是進而確保俄國本身的安全利益，因此俄國軍售中國的各項政策的轉變深深受到中國對俄國安全的威脅與影響，進而促使俄國對中國軍售政策有所轉變。

Between 2000 and 2006, the considerations behind Russian arms sales policy towards China are confined by the Chinese influence on Russian national security. Russia initially withheld from selling high-tech weapons to China, only to switch its stance later. This transformation in Russian arms sales policy towards China is based on national security considerations, while motivated by factors such as geopolitics. Since Russia adopted US-friendly policies, so as to counterweight pro-China influences within, it signed the US-Russia ''Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty'' (SORT) in 2002, and established strategic partnership with the US, all in an attempt to rid itself of strategic interference posed by China. On the other hand, Russia sought to utilize arms sales towards China to balance US-China relations, keeping it within controllable limits. Amid warming US-Russia ties, Russia sold more sophisticated high-tech weapons to China as an appeasement to its sentiments, and to stabilize Russia-China relations. Meanwhile, unlike its overly pro-western inclination, current foreign policy of Russia puts an equal weight between the East and the West. Russia therefore desperately needs arms sales of high-tech weapons to draw China to its side, in order to gain more chips when bargaining with the West. Furthermore, Russian national security was threatened by NATO's expansion towards the Eastern Europe, which in turn compelled Russia to try to win over China and India in order to increase security, and more rooms when negotiating a strategic reconciliation with the US. Russia intended to make India as a balance to China, offering advanced weapons to the former. This article attempts to analyze, through geopolitics approach and national security approach, the transformation of Russian arms sales policy towards China during the rule of former President Vladimir Putin, between 2000 and 2006. This article will first review and analyze Russia's various arms sales policy towards China under Putin, then it will discuss the national security factors that influence such policies. This article found out that Russia intentionally limited the projection capabilities of weapons sold to China, so as to avoid endangering its own safety, as well as ensuring Russian security interests. This article therefore concludes that the transformation in Russian arms sales policy towards China is profoundly influenced by the threat that China posed on Russian national security.