基於「修正的權力轉移理論」之冷戰和平與後冷戰和平之解析描述

An Analytical Description of Cold War Peace and Post-Cold War Peace Based on “Modified Power Transition Theory”

吳玉山於〈權力轉移理論：悲劇預言？〉一文中融合權力轉移理論與權力平衡理論，提出「修正的權力轉移理論」（Modified Power Transition, MPT）並用以解釋美、蘇之冷戰和平與後冷戰和平，唯，融合兩大理論之描述線圖不夠完整與精確。本文基於國力之「內生成長曲線」，依循解析幾何途徑，推演出足以精準描述權力平衡理論與權力轉移理論的非線性曲線，再按吳玉山「修正的權力轉移理論」之相同邏輯，在這曲線上辨認出一段足以解釋美蘇冷戰和平與後冷戰和平的W形部份。前述整條曲線可視為一個融合權力轉移理論與權力平衡理論之模型，有助於描述、解釋、甚至預測一個兩極體系穩定程度之變化。

In “The Power Transition Theory: A Tragic Prophecy?” Wu Yu-shan fused Power Transition Theory and Power Balance Theory and, then, proposed “Modified Power Transition Theory” (MPT) and used it to explain the Cold War peace and post-Cold War peace between the United States and the Soviet Union. However, the diagram used to present the fusion of the two theories was not complete and accurate enough. This paper, based on the “Endogenous Growth Curve” of national power and through analytical geometric approach, deduces a nonlinear curve that can accurately describe the two Theories. Then, according to the same logic of Wu Yu-shan’s “Modified Power Transfer Theory,” this paper identifies a segment of the curve which is sufficient to explain the U.S.-Soviet Cold War peace and post-Cold War peace. The entire curve described above can be viewed as a model that integrates the two Theories, helping to describe, explain, and even predict changes in the degree of stability of a Bipolar System.