台灣面對中國軍事威脅下的「政治準備」

Taiwan’s Political Preparation under the Chinese Military Threat

在過去的幾年裡，因為面臨中國的軍事威脅，台灣在相關的軍事防衛以及「灰色地帶」與「混合威脅」等議題上確實進行了許多的討論與推演，但是在一個「宏觀的政治問題」上的探究卻是付之闕如。換言之，台灣在軍事、經濟、科技、輿論與法律等面向的準備之外，在一個大架構之政治上的準備是什麼？本文以概念性分析為基礎，認為「台澎防衛作戰／台灣解放戰爭」不單是軍事上的準備而已，台灣也必須留意相關的政治問題與挑戰。整體而言，在台海戰事爆發之前與進行之中，台灣面對戰爭態度的「一致性」至關重要，而台灣亦必須同時努力推動「戰略溝通」，對象則包括國內主要政黨、政府部門、與社會輿論，以及美國及國際社會。在戰事接近尾聲與結束之後，台灣最主要的政治課題是國家身份、憲政體制、與中國關係的重新定位，而軍事行動上的結果將決定台灣能採取什麼樣的政治選擇與安排。

Due to the Chinese military threat, Taiwan was undergoing a series of discussions of its reactions to self-defense, grey zone operation, and hybrid warfare in the past years. However, talks on a macropolitical issue are relatively few. In other words, in addition to preparing for challenges of military, economy, technology, and opinion and law from Beijing, it is a time to think of another political concern for Taipei at this moment. This paper is based on an approach of conceptual analysis and I primarily argue that Taiwan has to get ready for a tougher political challenge following the process of war in the Taiwan Strait. First of all, just prior to and during the bonfire, Taiwan needs to effort at reaching a consistency of its position on war against China, and keeps working on strategic communications with the nation per se and with the international society as well. By the end of the war, the major political agendas for the island are to redefine its stateness, constitutional order, and the relationship with China. Generally, Taiwan’s option and arrangement of a new political order are rooted in the consequence of the military confrontation in the Strait.