試乘民眾對於自動駕駛小巴的選擇行為與偏好分析──以國立故宮博物院南部院區為例

ANALYSIS OF PASSENGERS’ CHOICE BEHAVIOR AND PREFERENCES FOR SELF-DRIVING SHUTTLE BUS －A CASE STUDY OF SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE NATIONAL PALACE MUSEUM

近年來世界各國致力於發展自動駕駛技術，目前自動駕駛小巴除歐美等國已於不同類型場域進行測試外，我國亦於部份封閉場域舉辦短期的試乘活動，然而由於發展初期，目前有關國人對於自動駕駛小巴態度的瞭解較少，因此本研究欲從需求面出發，藉由國立故宮博物院南部院區舉辦的試乘活動，探討自動駕駛小巴試乘民眾之需求偏好。本研究以敘述性偏好法，模擬未來自動駕駛小巴提供故宮南院園區內的接駁服務，並運用多項羅吉特模式及巢氏羅吉特模式進行參數校估，建立故宮南院園區接駁之運具選擇模型。研究結果顯示，路程時間和旅行成本對於試乘民眾的運具選擇具有顯著負向之影響，若未來自動駕駛小巴票價過高將導致其市占率大幅下滑。

Self-driving or autonomous vehicles are being developed throughout the world. Self-driving shuttle buses have been tested in different fields in Europe and the United States. Taiwan has also conducted brief test-ride activities in closed circuits. Taiwanese attitudes toward self-driving shuttle buses are unknown, and this study investigated passenger preferences regarding a self-driving shuttle bus during a test-ride activity at the Southern Branch of the National Palace Museum. The study used stated preference to simulate a self-driving shuttle bus service in the park and then used multinomial logit model and nested logit model to calibrate the parameters and establish the mode choice model. The results indicate that travel time and cost have a significant impact on mode choice. If the fare of a self-driving shuttle bus is too high, the market share of the bus will sharply decline.