韓國瑜民粹論述對2018年高雄市長選舉的影響

The Impact of Han Kuo-yu's Populist Rhetoric in the 2018 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election

韓國瑜如何從不被矚目的政治人物，變成高雄市長然後成為國民黨總統候選人？本文指出，韓國瑜「韓流」崛起乃基於民粹主義訴求，他向選民傳達主要訊息是，老百姓生活應過得比現在更好，但政治菁英從過去到現在一直都口惠不實、未代表一般基層人民真正利益。本文梳理韓國瑜在2017年競選國民黨黨主席時完整辯論主張，及其2018年競選高雄市長時修辭說法，並深度檢視他這兩次選舉所發表的相關聲明，先後一貫呈現出來的民粹論述。接著，本文探討2018年高雄市長選舉的TEDS選後面訪民調數據，發現受訪者確實附和了韓國瑜相關民粹論調，即使在非傳統國民黨選民中，認同韓國瑜說法和投票給他者呈正相關，意即韓國瑜民粹說辭對其擴大支持度及能在高雄拿下原本不太可能的勝選，扮演重要角色。

How did Han Kuo-yu shoot from political obscurity to become the mayor of Kaohsiung and then the KMT presidential candidate? This paper argues that Han's rise was grounded in his populist appeal. Han told voters that things should have been better for ordinary people except that establishment politicians had consistently failed to represent their interests. This paper examines Han's populist rhetoric with an in-depth look at Han's statements in the 2017 KMT party chair election and 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral campaign. It then looks at public opinion data from the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election to see whether voters absorbed that rhetoric. There are, in fact, clear echoes of Han's populist rhetoric in the survey data. Acceptance of Han's rhetoric was associated with a vote for Han, even among voters who were not traditional KMT constituents. That is, Han's populist rhetoric played a central role in expanding his appeal and enabling him to secure an unlikely victory in Kaohsiung.