社會距離與兩岸關係認知：臺灣民衆統獨立場的實證分析

Social Distance and Cross-Strait Relations: Taiwanese Attitudes toward the Independence/Unification Issue

本文旨在檢證臺灣民眾如何看待中國，以及他們的心理認知的社會距離，是否會影響其統獨立場。作者採取社會心理學的分析途徑，以「社會距離」（social distance）與「社會認同理論」（social identity theory）作為研究架構，並輔以「關係模式理論」（relational models theory），建構兩個變數，其分別是：臺灣民眾將中國視為「家人關係」或「夥伴關係」，與臺灣民眾認為中國將臺灣視為「家人關係」或「夥伴關係」，從而瞭解這些民眾的統獨立場。本文採用「2019年中國印象」電話調查資料，將民眾劃分為四種類型，以「關係認知」作為「社會距離」的代理變數，藉由「多項勝算對數模型」（multinomial logit model）探討四種類型與統獨立場的相關性。實證資料顯示，關係認知越近的民眾，越傾向統一；然而，關係認知越遠的民眾，卻不必然會傾向獨立。這印證社會認同理論和諸多實證研究的經驗：當個人認知的社會距離較近，選擇接納其他團體時，傾向將其他團體視為「內團體」（ingroup），並產生互惠的期待與較強烈的意見表達；另一方面，當個人選擇疏遠其他團體時，傾向將其他團體歸類為「外團體」（outgroup），卻不必然會貶低其他團體，而在統獨問題上採取較為模糊的立場。

This study probes Taiwanese perception of social distance toward China and its impact on their political attitudes toward the issue of independence/unification. Taking advantage of social distance and social identity theories from social psychology, we hypothesize that the Taiwanese people with a smaller perceived social distance toward China would indicate an inclination for China unification; otherwise, they would prefer Taiwan's independence. We modify the relational models theory to construct two variables to approximate social distance: we ask respondents first whether they regard China as a family member or a partner, and second, whether China views Taiwan as a family member or a partner. To examine our arguments, we utilize the “2019 Survey of the Image of China” to investigate the association between different types of relational cognitions and their impacts on cross-Strait relations. The findings by and large confirm the validity of the relational models theory, revealing that the Taiwanese electorate is prone to support unification when it perceives a closer social distance toward China. The results also demonstrate that those who are willing to accept China as an in-group tend to expect reciprocity from China. In contrast, those perceiving a greater social distance toward China exhibit ambivalent independence/unification preferences; they express less intimate attitudes but also do not exhibit great hostility toward China.