老年扶養費請求案件之准駁及扶養金額預測

Predicting Judgments and Grants for Civil Cases of Alimony for the Elderly

有鑒於近年請求扶養費民事訴訟案件逐年上升之趨勢，考慮伴隨著調解件數增長，未來量能或將難以負荷，本研究將以斷詞及向量化後之段落以logistic regression為基礎提出扶養費准駁預測模型，同時提出使用model tree建構扶養金額預測模型，以期未來能在庭外調解時提供一相對客觀的試算結果供有扶養費爭議之兩造參考並儘早達成共識，亦或給予法官參考數據輔助以期能加速判決之進程，進而減少司法資源的浪費。

The needs for mediation are increasing rapidly along with the increasing number of cases of the alimony for the elderly in recent years. Offering a prediction mechanism for predicting the outcomes of some prospective lawsuits may alleviate the workload of the mediation courts. This research aims to offer the predictions for the judgments and the granted alimony for the plaintiffs of such civil cases in Chinese, based on our analysis of results of the past lawsuits. We hope that the results can be helpful for both the involved parties and the courts. To build the current system, we segment and vectorize the texts of the judgement documents, and apply the logistic regression and model tree models for predicting the judgments and for estimating the granted alimony of the cases, respectively.