影響白銀價格之因素探討

The Study on the Influencing Factors of the Silver Price

本研究探討2015年12月18日至2022年2月25日間影響白銀期貨價格之因素，2019年8月2日為美國貨幣緊縮與寬鬆階段之分野。本研究選取黃金期貨、抗通膨債券殖利率、金銀比、白銀基本面指數及美元指數期貨等因子，加以探討與白銀期貨價格之關係，採用白銀、黃金及美元指數等期貨價格，主要著眼於期貨具有價格發現的功能，經過嚴謹的實證過程，獲得以下的結論：抗通膨債券殖利率顯著領先白銀期貨價格一週正向變動，兩者間沒有如預期呈現負向關係，此表示白銀價格可能受到疫情期間通貨膨脹及工業需求的影響較大。此外，兩者於貨幣寬鬆階段，有較顯著的關係。最後，黃金期貨價格、金銀比、美元指數期貨價格及白銀基本面指數對白銀期貨價格無顯著影響。

This study discusses affecting factors of the price of silver futures from December 18, 2015 to February 25, 2022, and especially August 2, 2019 is the distinction date between monetary tightening and monetary easing. This study selects factors such as gold futures, inflationindexed bond yields, gold-silver ratio, silver fundamentals index, and U.S. dollar index futures to explore the relationship with silver futures price. This study uses futures prices such as silver, gold, and US dollar index, because the futures have the function of price discovery. After a rigorous empirical process, the following conclusions were obtained: The inflation-indexed bond yield had a significant positive impact on the silver futures price for one week. The result did not show a negative relationship as expected, which means that the silver futures price was greatly affected by inflation during the epidemic and industrial demand. Moreover, The two had a greater relationship in the stage of monetary easing. At last, this study also showed that the gold futures price, gold-silver ratio, U.S. dollar index futures price, and silver fundamentals index had no significant impact on the silver futures price.