分析師對於每股盈餘預測之定錨偏誤：以併購交易為例

Anchoring Bias in Analysts' EPS Forecasts: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions

本研究旨在探討併購交易事件中，分析師對於併購公司的盈餘預測是否存在定錨效應而未能偏離產業常規，導致盈餘預測調整不足的現象。過去文獻提出顯著證據說明在許多領域中存在關於定錨與調整機制的不理性行為偏誤。本研究預測此種偏誤應會影響分析師的盈餘預測行為。實證結果顯示分析師對於產業盈餘預測的中位數給予過高權重的定錨偏誤行為，導致公司在併購交易事件時，分析師的盈餘預測產生顯著的預測誤差。但若是產業外的併購行為或以股票併購為主的公司，定錨偏誤的影響將會減弱。本研究為首篇釐清分析師對併購事件公司的盈餘預測誤差來自於定錨效應的研究，實證結果將能提供產學界更瞭解定錨效應對盈餘預測誤差的影響。

This study investigates whether the acquiring firm's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts released by analysts are biased toward the industry norm. The literature provides significant evidence for the irrational behavioral bias of anchoring and adjustment mechanisms across diverse domains. We predict the anchoring heuristic bias may affect analyst earnings forecast behavior. Moreover, this study considers types of M&A deals with different information characteristics that may drive the mitigation effect on analysts' anchoring, such as non-cash-financed and inter-industry mergers. Our results show that analysts tend to put weight on the industry median forecasted EPS and that this anchoring heuristic behavior results in a notable level of forecasting bias in acquisition activities. This anchoring effect may be mitigated by non-cash-financed and inter-industry mergers. This study is the first one to clarify the influence of anchoring effect on analyst earnings forecasts for acquiring firms. Our empirical results would fill the gap of the related literature.