空屋移轉模型──住宅部門之互動分析

Housing Vacancy Transfer Model-A Study of Housing Sector Interaction

本文利用美國Cleveland的人口資料探索家庭間及住宅間的互動關係。人口遷移會伴隨相反的空屋移轉，也代表住宅需求與供給的改變。在1937-39年的統計資料中，顯示三個年度空屋鏈長度分別為3.07、3.83、4.21，呈現逐年增加的趨勢。依十分位分成十組家庭，利用邊際總和調整因子重新分配家庭分配，結果發現模型的配適度極佳。中等租金水準家庭的空屋鏈長度高於高租金及低租金水準家庭。空屋鏈結束最主要的原因是家庭遷入與家戶形成，住宅拆除對於空屋結束並不是很重要的因素。相關分析結果顯示，人口遷移乘數和空屋鏈長度與租金十分位數間的差異值間具有高相關。

This article uses the population data of Cleveland in the United States to explore the interaction between families and houses in the process of housing change. Population migration will be accompanied by the opposite transfer of vacant houses, which represents changes in housing demand and housing supply. In the statistical data of the three years from 1937 to 39, the result of empirical analysis shows that the lengths of the vacancy chain in the three years are 3.07, 3.83, and 4.21 respectively, which shows an increasing trend annually. Divide the households into ten groups according to the rent level of decile, and then use the marginal sum adjustment factor to redistribute the household distribution. The result shows that the model fits very well. Moreover, the length of vacancy chain for households with medium rent levels is higher than the those of families with the highest rents and the lowest rents. The main reason for the end of the vacancy chain is the family move-in and the household formation. The demolition of the house is not a very important factor for the end of the vacancy chain. According to the result of the correlation analysis, there is a high correlation among the population migration multiplier, the length of the vacancy chain and the rent decile gaps.