臺灣家戶住宅支出負擔的長期檢視

Housing Affordability of Taiwan’s Households: A Long-term Perspective

住宅消費是家戶支出占比最大的項目之一。住宅消費佔家戶總所得或總支出比例稱為住宅支出負擔，是衡量家戶住宅需求的主要指標。本研究採用行政院主計總處家庭收支調查資料，觀察1978至2018年間每隔10年的資料，透過恩格爾曲線觀點，以消費總支出作為家戶所得的代理變數，觀察橫跨40年期間家戶特性影響水電燃料與住宅服務的支出占比，在條件分配和時間趨勢的變化。實證結果發現，消費支出分配以及家戶人口特性，是決定住宅支出負擔的主要變數。水電燃料與住宅服務的消費特性，在經濟發展過程出現重大轉變。低消費水準、高依賴人口比、女性戶長、配偶不存在以及規模小的家戶，都是住宅負擔壓力較大的族群，值得住宅和社福政策的主管單位重視。

Housing consumption occupies the largest proportion of household expenditure. The proportion of housing consumption to total household income or total expenditure is defined as housing affordability, which is the main indicator used to measure housing demand. This study employs data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey for the period 1978 to 2018, compiled by DGBAS, to analyze housing demand behavior. In line with the Engel curve, total consumption expenditure is used as a proxy variable for household income to examine the extent to which household characteristics affect the expenditure on water and power as well as on housing services. The empirical results show that the distribution of consumption expenditure and household demographic factors are the main determinants of housing expenditure. Households with low consumption levels, a high dependent ratio, a female head, the absence of a spouse, and that are small in size are the disadvantaged groups that face greater pressure in relation to housing demand. They deserve more attention from related housing and social welfare policies.