代際財富流動性之探討──2001-2018遺產稅配對資料分析

INTERGENERATIONAL WEALTH MOBILITY IN TAIWAN: EVIDENCE FROM 2001-2018 ESTATE TAX RETURN DATA

本研究使用財政部財政資訊中心2001年至2018年的遺產税核定資料，並以轉移矩陣（transition matrix）及迴歸模型分析臺灣代際間的財富流動性（mobility）。實證結果指出平均的代際彈性（intergenerational elasticity，IGE）為0.31，代際排名（rank）相關性為0.37；與其他國家之估計結果比較，我國財富流動性相對較高。然而，細究不同財富分位的流動性，發現富有家庭在世代間相對容易維持自身的財富地位，第五分位（最富有20％）的代際彈性約為0.69，而第一分位（最貧窮20％）僅為0.06。

We use transition matrix and regression analysis to explore intergenerational wealth mobility in Taiwan. Using estate tax return data from 2001 to 2018, our results suggest that intergenerational elasticity (IGE) was about 0.31 and rank-rank correlation was 0.37. Compared with results from other countries, wealth mobility in Taiwan is higher. We also find that families in the fifth quintile (top 20%) were more likely to maintain their wealth status than other quintiles. IGE in the fifth quintile was 0.69, but that in the first quintile was 0.06.