新自由主義、兩岸貿易與企業地產金融化：臺灣縣市與企業層級追蹤數據的實證檢驗，2000~2019

Neoliberalism, Cross-Strait Trade and Financialization in Real Estate: The Tests on the Panel Data at the County and at the Corporation-Level, 2000-2019

本文以涵蓋2000至2019年臺灣縣市與企業層級追蹤數據，定群向量自迴歸模型與固定效果迴歸模型評估兩岸貿易擴張是否對臺灣房地產業帶來影響。本文主張，兩岸貿易擴張主要透過兩種機制影響臺灣房地產業發展：一、市場動力；二、企業地產金融化。在臺灣與中國地緣政治因素下，臺灣對中國貿易順差與新自由主義轉型政策，解釋本地房地產業持續在沒有大量外資挹注，資本持續流向中國市場下，卻仍持續發展。1990年以來，兩岸貿易擴張與政府新自由主義政策轉型，臺灣房地產業投資提供高額報酬機制，吸引兩岸貿易創造的剩餘資金挹注不動產土地開發。數據實證結果發現，對中貿易順差與貿易依賴度增大時，本地房價與不動產交易規模皆顯著增加；2002年後，臺商集團在中國營收擴大時其在臺灣的房地企業子公司獲利顯著增長。顯示，兩岸貿易擴張造確實影響本地房地產業發展。而在國內政策因子下，政府於2000年以來所推動的減稅政策，也顯著影響國內房價與不動產交易的發展。

In order to answer the question of how the cross-strait trade influence Taiwan's housing prices, this study argues that two mechanisms mattered: first, the driving force of the market; and second, the financialization of real estate in corporations. I argue that the profitable environment of real estate was built by the government's neoliberal policy from the 1990s due to Taiwan's massive capital outflow to China. The environment attracted capital from cross-strait trade and resulted in many big corporations investing in real estate developments. To investigate the above arguments, I test the hypotheses by panel VARX and fixed-effects model on balanced and unbalanced panel data at both the county-level and corporate-level from 2000 to 2019. I find that the housing prices did inflate when Taiwan's trade surplus with China increased, and the annual income from its subsidiary companies in the real estate industry in Taiwan also grew when the total sales and the assets of Taiwan's consortiums in China increased, though with limited job creation in local Taiwan. The study verified the impacts of cross-strait trade on Taiwan's real estate development, as well as suggested the relatively low tax rate was the main reason to explain the high housing prices in contemporary Taiwan.