Study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Long-term and Short-term Impact of China's Natural Rubber Futures Price

Study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Long-term and Short-term Impact of China's Natural Rubber Futures Price

At present, affected by public health events, global pessimism spreads, rubber demand is restrained, and rubber prices fall sharply. The world economy is still in a period of deep adjustment. Therefore, it is also necessary to comply with the trend of the times and carry out new economic transformation and development. China's financial economy is facing a difficult transition period, and China's financial derivatives market is also in an important transition and development stage. Under the background of this actual economic environment, this paper selects natural rubber products in China's futures market as the research object, uses monthly data, constructs vector autoregressive model, Johansen Co-integration model and VECM error correction model, Combined with economic factors and climate factors, this paper analyzes the variables affecting China's natural rubber futures price, obtains the impact on China's natural rubber futures price in the short and long term, and uses China's daily data in the same period to conduct a regional two-level test on the natural factors of the main reclamation areas, so as to give market participants a reference through the construction of professional mathematical models, It is convenient for them to analyze the future price trend of natural rubber futures price, ensure the natural rubber production capacity and promote the sustainable development of China's natural rubber industry.