論析中共在南海權力擴張的策略與手段

An Analysis of the CCP's Strategy and Means of Power Expansion in the South China Sea

中共在南海的擴權行為慣用威懾、強制等策略，此一措施與學界通稱之「灰色地帶衝突」雷同。中共擴權行為的本質有二：一是國家暴力有限運用的手段；屬性為政治性質。中共的策略融合既有的「非對稱作戰」、「威懾戰略」、「非戰爭軍事行動」等方式，使其手段的運用更具彈性。二是運用整體國力強勢嚇阻敵人，並從中攫取所欲獲得的利益。值得關注的是，國際社會又因對中共的擴權行為採取妥協，逐漸讓「積非成是」的陰謀，不斷得逞。中共的戰略目標，是要逐漸改變南海政治生態，在不引發重大軍事衝突（戰爭）前提下，進一步擴大國家利益。但是，中共最大弱點，是當對手國採取強硬對抗態度且抱持不惜一戰時，中共的擴權行為則可能收歛，尤其美國若能帶頭建構有效的國際規範，中共的擴權行為將受到限制。

The CCP relies on strategies of deterrence and coercion to expand their power over the South China Sea. These tactics are similar to measures commonly deployed in what the academic community refers to as ＂grey zone conflicts＂. The CCP's actions for power expansion can be mainly divided into two categories: The first type consists of measures which employ a limited amount of state violence; and such actions are political in nature. The CCP strategy combines asymmetric warfare, deterrence strategies, and military operations other than war, allowing the CCP to flexibly employ a wide range of different measures. The second type of action consists of the CCP using its national power to coerce and intimidate its enemies, through which it obtains the benefits it desires. What is worth noting here is that the international community has responded to the CCP's power expansion with compromise, gradually allowing for the CCP plot of ＂repeating a lie until it becomes truth＂ to succeed. The CCP's strategic goal is to gradually change the political landscape of the South China Sea. Under the premise of not causing major conflicts (wars), the CCP seeks to further expand its influence. However, the CCP's greatest weakness is that, if faced by an opposing country that adopts a strong attitude of resistance and is unafraid to go to war, it would be forced to back down from its power expansion. In particular, the CCP's power expansion can be limited if the United States is able to take the lead in establishing effective international norms.