東協中心性與避險策略之研究：以加入『區域全面經濟夥伴協定』與『跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定』經濟倡議為例

ASEAN Centrality and Hedging Strategy: Cases of RCEP and CPTPP

自冷戰以來，東南亞國家協會成員國因懼怕共產勢力在東南亞蔓延，而進行戰略上的團結，維護區域和平。冷戰結束後，該組織透過「多邊談判」以及「區域經濟整合」等方式進行貿易自由化，並逐步消除區域內之關稅。值得注意的是東協十個成員國的經濟發展、社會文化、政治制度與宗教信仰迥然有異，卻能夠透過「尋求共識」、「共同協商」、「不干預內政」及「相互包容」原則推行「東協模式」，為「東協經濟共同體」奠定良好基礎，促進區域一體化。然而，21世紀所建構的「東協中心性」，透過現有的五個東協加一，計有中國、日本、韓國、紐西蘭、澳洲與印度的自由貿易協定，印度因中國對其貿易順差過大而退出，擴大區域化整合形成『區域全面經濟貿易夥伴協定』發揮綜效。本文主張東協應支持RCEP與『跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定』鞏固「東協中心性」，平衡大國權力，避免受其牽制。

Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have been strategically uniting to maintain regional peace out of fear of the spread of communism in Southeast Asia ever since the Cold War. Followed by the Cold War, the organization underwent trade liberalization through multilateral negotiations and regional economic integration, and gradually eliminated tariffs in the region. It is worth noting that the despite the ten members of ASEAN having different economic development, societal cultures, political systems, and religious beliefs, they could construct ASEAN Way through consensus, consultation, non-interference, and mutual respect. These paved the way for the ASEAN Economic Community, facilitating regional integration. However, ASEAN Centrality was catalyzed in the 21^(st) century through the framework of 'ASEAN Plus One', including Free Trade Agreements with China, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and India, with the latter being in a status of trade surplus to withdraw. The respective FTAs that emerged gradually led to the formation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This article proposes that ASEAN should engage in the RCEP and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to consolidate ASEAN Centrality. By doing so, a hedging strategy can counter balance the influence of great powers and avoid interdependence.