中國大陸經濟發展回顧與戰略前瞻

A Development Review and Strategic Prospect of Mainland China's Economy

1978年由鄧小平確立「改革開放」的方向，為中國大陸帶來蓬勃的經濟成長。然而，在此過程中，也累積許多結構性的問題。尤其研究一國之經濟發展，必須從更深層的因素出發，才能擁有更宏觀的視野。是以，本文嘗試以長期的趨勢分析，讓讀者更容易理解大陸經濟結構問題。經研究發現貧富與區域結構不均、人口紅利消失、環境污染問題以及科技研發能力不足，已經成為中共不得不面對的燙手山芋。縱使北京當局有意進行結構性的調整，卻經常發生顧此失彼的狀況。習近平爭取第三任期意圖，已是司馬昭之心。但是這些結構性的問題，將為他的連任之路，鋪上更多荊棘，使他面臨更艱鉅的挑戰。習近平對這些難題的掌握，也將成為能否順利完成第三任期的關鍵指標。
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In 1978, Deng Xiaoping initiated the ''reform and opening-up'' policy for Chinese economy, which brought prosperous economic growth to Mainland China. However, many structural problems also accumulated in the process. It is necessary to understand the deeper structure while studying the economic development of a country. Therefore, this article tries to make it easier for readers to understand China's economic structure by aiming to explore the long-term trends. The study finds that the income inequality, unbalanced regional development, decrease of the demographic dividend, environmental pollution problems, and the lack of technology research and development capabilities are urgent difficulties that the CCP has to face. Even when the Beijing authorities intend to make structural adjustments, they often attend to one thing and lose sight of another. It is an open secret for Xi Jinping's intention to pave way for his third term. But these structural problems will make him face more tough challenges. His ability to solve such problems is regarded as the key indicator of whether he can successfully complete his third term or not.