建構綠色大眾運輸導向發展規劃模式來引導永續及緊湊的城市發展──以金門為例

Developing a Green TOD Planning Model to Promote Sustainable and Compact City Development─An Empirical Study of Kinmen

本研究以供給導向（supply-oriented） 的規劃觀點切入，嘗試整合大眾運輸導向發展（Transit-Oriented Development; TOD） 理論與永續生態社區理論，進而建構出一套以BRT 或輕軌為主要運具的綠色大眾運輸導向發展（Green TOD） 規劃模式，以促進新興或轉型中城市區域的永續及緊湊發展。本文從TOD理論發展的批判性回顧開始，透過文獻與國際經驗的剖析，探討TOD 在引導城市發展上所面臨的挑戰及潛力，並探討從TOD 擴展到Green TOD 的理論發展脈絡及關鍵內容，接著以正面臨城鎮化轉型發展及蛙躍式土地開發壓力的金門島嶼區域為例，系統性地探討Green TOD 在引導永續及緊湊之城鎮化發展上的機會與挑戰。經由理論與文獻分析、案例分析、情境導向的預測分析、GIS 空間分析、層級分析法等方法的綜合應用，本研究提出一套符合成本效益及永續與緊湊城市發展觀點的島嶼型Green TOD 規劃模式，並透過配合Green TOD 規劃的生態社區選址分析，對金門未來的人口分派進行模擬分析，最後亦探討落實此Green TOD 模式的規劃策略及可優先執行的關鍵生態社區營造內容，以期能有助於TOD 理論的拓展，並促進島嶼區域的永續及緊湊發展。

This study develops a Green TOD planning model with BRT and/or a light rail system as the main transportation mode by integrating the theory of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) with the theory of sustainable and ecological communities based on a supply-oriented planning viewpoint, in order to promote the sustainable and compact development of emerging and transforming cityregions. Starting with a critical review of the development of TOD theory, and through the analysis of related literature and international experiences, this study explores the challenges and potentials of TOD in guiding city development as well as the theoretical development and key content of the expansion from TOD to Green TOD. This review is followed by an empirical case study using the Kinmen island region - a transforming island region facing the pressure of urbanization and leapfrogging land development - as the case setting to systematically investigate the opportunities and challenges of Green TOD in promoting sustainable and compact urbanization. Through the comprehensive application of theoretical and literature analysis, case studies, scenario-based forecasting, GIS spatial analysis, and analytic hierarchical analysis (AHP), this research proposes a Green TOD planning model that is in line with the concepts of cost-effective infrastructure investment and sustainable/compact city development. A scenario-based simulation analysis on the future population distribution of Kinmen is conducted in cooperation with the site selection of potential ecological communities along Green TOD corridors. Finally, this research explores several operational planning strategies for the implementation of the Green TOD model and related priority key ecological community construction elements. It is hoped that our research efforts can contribute to the development of TOD theory as well as promote the sustainable and compact development of island regions.