從恆大事件解析中國大陸房地產安全

An Analysis of the Security of Mainland China’s Real Estate Industry Based on the Evergrande Group Incident

習近平上臺後，提出《總體國家安全觀》將「經濟安全」列入中國大陸（下稱大陸）12類國家安全領域中，其中「房地產安全」是「經濟安全」領域的重要組成部份。大陸同時面臨高房價、房地產泡沫和房地產業高負債等問題。在擴大內需市場政策的激勵下，大陸的房地產市場發展熱絡，房地產業占GDP比重不斷上升。因寬鬆貨幣政策及過度投資，推動房價不斷高升，房地產泡沬化明顯，一旦房地產泡沬破裂，將嚴重威脅大陸經濟的發展。高財務槓桿操作和政府政策的變化，是恆大發生債務違約事件的主要原因。恆大事件是大陸房地產問題的冰山一角，一連串發生的房地商違約事件，如果處理不善，恐引發系統性金融危機。恆大事件的發生，顯示大陸房地產安全正面臨嚴峻挑戰。
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After Xi Jinping came to power, he proposed 'A Holistic View of National Security', in which 12 categories of national security fields were included. One of them was 'economic security', under which the security of real estate industry was a very important part. Mainland China’s real estate industry is facing high housing prices, real estate bubbles and high debt at the same time. Inspired by the policy of expanding the domestic demand market, the real estate market is developing vigorously and the proportion of real estate industry in GDP continues to rise. Due to the loose monetary policy and excessive investment, housing prices have been continuously rising and the real estate bubbles have become obvious. Once the real estate bubbles burst, it will seriously threaten the economic development. High financial leverage and changes of government policies are the main reasons for Evergrande Group debt default. The Evergrande Group incident is just a tip of the iceberg of the real estate problems. A series of defaults by real estate developers, if not handled properly, may lead to a systemic financial crisis. The occurrence of the Evergrande Group incident shows that the security of China’s real estate industry is facing severe challenges.