模擬氣候變遷影響台灣常見花蜂之分佈範圍

Modeling effects of climate change on common pollen bees’range in Taiwan

野生花蜂在食物鏈中常扮演著重要的能量推動角色，所提供的授粉服務，能幫助植物繁衍與作物生產，是建構陸域生態系完整性與維持人類社會發展的核心物種。氣候變遷被認定是威脅花蜂族群減少的原因之一，本研究以台灣本島10 種常見花蜂為目標，運用物種點位資料與集成式生態棲位建模，研究結果顯示，所建構的預測模型具備良好的性能，進一步推估代表濃度途徑(representative concentration pathway, RCP) 情境下，物種適宜棲地之時空動態，研究發現，高排碳的情境(RCP 8.5)，將導致花蜂的適宜棲地發生明顯改變，有6 種花蜂呈現減少，4 種具擴張趨勢，位於高緯度及高海拔的物種皆有適宜棲地縮減的可能，反觀，適於低緯度及低海拔區域的耐熱物種會增加。因此，未來有關因應氣候變遷的保育策略，建議考量這兩種不同的環境做分區規劃。

Wild pollen bees often play an important energy-promoting role in the food chain. The pollination services they provide can help plant reproduction and crop production. They are the keystone species that contribute to the integrity of the terrestrial ecosystem and maintain the development of human society. Climate change is identified as one of the reasons that threaten the reduction of pollen bee populations. In this study, an ecological niche model was “assembled” for 10 common pollen bee species in Taiwan based on species occurrence records. The results showed that our model has good performance, and further estimated the spatiotemporal dynamics of suitable habitats under the representative concentration pathway (RCP). The study found that the high carbon emission situation scenario (RCP 8.5) may cause significant changes to suitable habitats of pollen bees. Among them, six species showed a decrease in population and four species had a trend of expansion. Species located at high latitudes and altitudes may experience possible loss of suitable habitat, while heat-resistant species that prefer low latitudes and altitude areas may increase in population. Therefore, we recommend to consider these two different environments for zone planning in future conservation strategies in response to climate change.