股市政策與中國證券業近期之生產力動態績效研究

STOCK MARKET POLICY AND DYNAMIC PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE OF CHINESE SECURITIES INDUSTRY IN RECENT YEARS

滬港通政策導致2015年中國股市巨幅交易量，推升了股市之規模。不過，此政策對中國證券業生產力績效之影響仍缺乏深入的研究。本文旨在衡量中國證券商近期之動態效率、技術進步及生產力等績效，並探討政策實施對不同特性證券商之績效影響。我們應用2009至2017年共80家證券商進行實證。研究結果發現:證券商之績效深受股市政策影響，「滬港通」政策之實施非但提升了中國股市規模，亦有效提高了證券商的經營績效。而中國證券業的生產力變動主要係源自純技術效率之變動，兩者在研究期間變動趨勢一致，並與股市交易規模變動方向相近。不過，證券商的經營技術卻呈全期持續提升，不受股市波動影響；其中，規模大、上市、及京滬深地區的證券商在其技術進步幅度上亦較大。研究亦發現「滬港通」政策對不同類別證券商績效亦有顯著的影響。

The policy of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has resulted in a huge boost in stock trading volume in 2015 and escalated the scale of stock market in China. However, few studies have investigated thoroughly the impact of this policy on the productivity performance of the Chinese securities industry. This paper attempts to evaluate the dynamic performance of Chinese securities firms in recent years. We also assess the impact of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy on productivity performance of different types of securities firms. A panel data set with 80 securities firms in 2009-2017 is used for empirical measurement. We find that the performance of Chinese securities firms has been strongly influenced by the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy. During the study period, policy has not only boosted the scale of stock market, but also resulted in better performance of securities firms. While the productivity change of Chinese securities industry can be mostly attributed to technical efficiency change, the operational technology of China securities industry has increased over time. Results also indicate that large, listed, or locating in Beijing-Shanghai-Shejen region securities firms are found to perform better in terms of technical progress than other securities firms in China. Lastly, policy impacts on productivity performance for different types of securities firms are significantly different.