澎湖觀光旅館經營型態之財務可行性評估──獨立經營或加盟經營？

Financial Feasibility Evaluation of Tourist Hotel Ownership in Penghu: Operating by Independent or Franchised Tourist Hotel

除近兩年因新冠病毒疫情而受影響，我國於2009至2019年期間國人國內旅遊總次數成長率約有72.75%，觀光總收入成長亦高達93.62%。這股熱潮不限於臺灣本島，澎湖亦有大型國際連鎖旅館進駐，人潮湧入帶動旅宿需求增加。本文探討離島觀光旅館的經營型態，以回收期間法與內部報酬率法，分析開發離島觀光旅館之財務可行性評估。研究結果顯示，暫不考慮貨幣的時間價值下，獨立經營型旅館以及特許加盟旅館的PP分別為大於20年以及16.61年。若將貨幣的時間價值納入考量，獨立經營型旅館以及特許加盟旅館的IRR分別為-1.65%以及2.14%，特許加盟旅館超過計畫要求的必要報酬率2.00%，NPV則分別為：-158,667與6,895千元，特許加盟的淨現值大於0，顯示該方案值得投資。此外，本文藉由敏感度分析，評估不同景氣循環下，營業收入增減對於本案的影響。

Although the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the business in recent two years, looking back at the period from 2009 to 2019, the rate of domestic travel has increased by 72.75%. Simultaneously, the revenue of tourism had also increased by 93.62%. This surge of tourism was not limited to the Taiwan main island; international chained-branded hotels have also established branches in Penghu and the increase of visitors brought about the need of accommodation. This is an indicative significance. Thus, this research discusses the different types of hotel ownership, also analyses the financial possibilities for hotels in offshore islands. The research results show that without considering the time value of money, the PP of independent hotels and franchised hotels are greater than 20 years and 10.76 years, respectively. It cannot create value for shareholders by operating independent hotels, but the investors of franchised hotels can recover the initial investment after 16.61 years. If discounting approaches are taken into consideration, the IRR of independently operated and franchised hotels are -1.65% and 2.14% respectively, and franchised hotels exceed the required rate of return of 2.00 %; NPV of independently operated and franchised hotels are -158,667 and 6,895 thousand dollars. The results show that franchised hotel can be invested. That is, this plan not only meets the investors' expected returns, but also creates a residual rate of return, so the plan is regarded as a feasible investment plan. In addition, this study takes risk factors into consideration and uses sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of the increase or decrease in operating revenue on the case under different business cycles.