台灣證券交易所上市公司月營收之預測──以元大台灣50；ETF成分股為例

Monthly Revenue Forecast of Exchange Listed Companies in Taiwan: Taking the Yuanta Yuanta/P -shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF Components as Examples

股票上市公司的基本面是影響股票市場長期發展趨勢的主因，以長期投資股票市場的角度，上市公司的獲利與盈餘終將反應其市場價值，而營業收入以下簡稱營收正是公司獲利的主要來源。營收具有資訊內涵，因此，上市公司未來月營收的預測，能給予投資者提早取得有意義的資訊內涵。本研究為了進一步提升預測的準確性，對傳統ARIMA模型進行改良，並實施幾種不同演算法的預測效能比較，以平均絕對百分比誤差(MAPE)評估各方法之預測準確度。最後以最佳預測方法預測上市公司未來12個月之月營收，提供股票市場長期投資者事先了解該公司未來月營收可能的成長趨勢及其投資上的參考。

The fundamentals of listed stock companies are the main factors affecting the long-term development trend of the stock market. From the perspective of long-term investment in the stock market, the profits and earnings of listed companies will eventually reflect their market value. Operating revenue has information connotation and isthe main source of company profits. Therefore, the forecast of future monthly revenue of listed companies can give investors early access to meaningful information. In order to further improve the accuracy of forecasting, this study improves the traditional ARIMA model and implements the comparison of the prediction performance of several different algorithms. The average absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of each algorithm. Finally, the best algorithms are used to forecast the monthly revenue of the listed company in Taiwan in the next 12 months. The results provide long-term investors in the stock market with a prior understanding of the company's future monthly revenue growth trend and investment reference.