「繼續施用毒品傾向評估指標」預測效度之研究

The Predictive Validity of Assessment Index for Tendency to Drug Relapse

毒品施用者觀察勒戒政策實施逾20年，「有無繼續施用毒品傾向評估標準記錄表」為接續強制戒治或釋放的參考依據，仍須以受觀察勒戒人定群追蹤研究檢驗其預測效度。本研究主要目的在觀察樣本再犯施用毒品罪情形，分析評估標準紀錄表中各項因子與再犯施用毒品之關聯性，檢驗評估表對再犯施用毒品之預測效度，並建立較具預測效度之「修訂版評估表」。本研究之分析資料係以2008至2009年法務部委託林健陽、陳玉書等執行之「新犯毒品施用者施用行為及取得管道之研究」為基礎；696名受觀察勒戒人9年的追蹤資料分析結果顯示，再犯施用毒品者約占57.3%，評估項目中僅逃家、逃學、首次施用毒品年齡、其他犯罪相關紀錄、戒斷症狀、施用毒品多元性、使用年數、就業穩定性等與再犯施用毒品具顯著關聯性，2000年版評估表中以臨床徵候具顯著預測力，整體評估表第1年內判斷繼續施用毒品正確率為65.5%，其後逐年下降。由毒品評估指標、生命史理論和實證證據整合而成的「修訂版評估表」，則能提升評估指標的預測效度，尤其對繼續施用毒品4次以上者更具鑑別力。最後根據研究結果，就毒品施用者繼續施用傾向評估與處遇提出相關建議。

"The policy of rehabilitation and observation for drug abusers has been executed over two decades. The Drug Relapse Tendency Assessment Instrument (DRTAI) is the crucial criterion to determine whether drug users under observation and rehabilitation (DUORs) should receive compulsory rehab treatment or release into society. It is necessary to examine and improve the predictive validity of the DRTAI by the longitudinal panel study on DUORs. The purposes of the current study are to observe the relapse rate for drug use of DUORs, analyze the correlations between DRTAI items and drug relapse, test the predictive validity of DRTAI, and construct the DRTAI for improving prediction efficacy. Data for the current study were extracted from “The Study on Drug Use Behaviors and Obtaining Channels for Initial Drug Offenders” sponsored by Ministry of Justice and conducted by Chien-Yang Lin and Yu-Shu Chen from 2008 to 2009 in Taiwan. Findings from 9-year panel data of 696 DUORs showed that the relapse rate for drug use was approximately 57.3% of all respondents. Several items of the DRTAI were significantly associated with the drug relapse, including running away from home, the dropout from school, age of drug use onset, crime-related records, drug withdrawal symptoms, multi-drug use, years of using drugs, and employment stability. Clinical symptoms had a significant predictive effect on drug relapse. The correction rate of the DRTAI 2000 version for predicting drug relapse was about 65.5% within one year and decreased year by year. The DRTAI synthesized by the DRTAI, life-course theories, and evidence-based results increased the predictive validity of the assessment index, especially for those who continue to use drugs over four times. Suggestions related to revising DRTAI and treatment for DUORs were discussed."