廠商直接投資之匯率問題研究：台灣與東南亞國協貨幣之長期關係

Research on the exchange rate of direct investment:The long-term relationship between Taiwan and ASEAN currencies

中美貿易戰下，台灣廠商因應現今政治與經濟環境，進行直接投資的重新規劃。廠商生產與營運地區的轉移，必須面對有關的匯率問題，其中以匯率水準值最受關注。若匯率變動具有長期關係，則匯率水準值可能落於某一區間，如此可大幅降低匯率問題。因此本文採用自我迴歸分佈式滯後模式(Autoregressive distributed lag model：ARDL)，來探討各國匯率間長期的關係。研究對象為近年來政府推動新南向政策的國家，即東南亞國協(The Association of Southeast Asian Nations，ASEAN)與台灣之匯率。結果發現，這些國家的匯率長期關係十分緊密。代表廠商在這些國家投資設廠，面對類似的匯率問題。

"Under the China-US trade war, Taiwan companies have re-planned direct investment in response to the current political and economic environment. As companies shift their pro-duction and operating regions, they must face the relevant exchange rate issues, among which the exchange rate level value is the most concerned. If the exchange rate changes have a long-term relationship, the exchange rate level may fall within a certain range, which can greatly reduce the exchange rate problem. This article uses autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to explore the long-term relationship between the exchange rate of various countries. The research objects are the exchange rates of The Association of Southeast Asian Na-tions (ASEAN) and Taiwan, to illustrate the impact of its changes on companies. It turns out that the long-term relationship between these countries' exchange rates is very close. It re-presents that companies direct invest in these countries face similar exchange rate issues."