以資料科學方法輔助民意趨勢分析：戰略及戰爭風險感知的網路民意研究

Using Data Science Approach to Explore Online Public Opinion: Strategic and War Risk Perceptions on the Internet

美國兩岸戰略態勢同天平一般，左右臺海穩定局勢，近期美軍在臺海周圍的軍事行動頻率增加。本研究探討美國戰略偏向對於中華民國民眾戰略感知與兩岸軍事衝突風險感知時，從過往將受眾視為單方面接收傳統媒體風險訊息，聚焦在公眾在網路媒體上針對特定風險議題的討論回文。透過網路民意探勘技術針對網路回文進行主題模型分析後，我們得出網民討論主題主要圍繞在「三角軍事博弈」、「兩岸統獨競爭」、「對美戰略評價」、「兩岸戰爭威脅」及「美中航行爭議」等五個主題，其中最多是針對「美中航行爭議」做討論，反映了臺灣民眾對美中雙邊對於自由航行與公海航行議題的重視。其次，本研究發現「戰略」及「風險」詞頻隨中美雙方博弈而波動，美國表態支持臺灣之層級提高，共軍也更加頻繁的以軍機艦繞臺行為表態，進而影響網民討論趨向。最後，網民對於可能產生軍事衝突風險的議題均是抱持負面情感，相對的，在探討軍事戰略相關議題時，負向情感則較少。

"The U.S. cross-Strait strategy is a focal indicator for influencing the status of Taiwan-China relationships. With U.S. armed force activities around Taiwan increasing, this research examines the influence of American AsiaPacific strategies toward Taiwan on Taiwanese war risk perceptions and responses from the media. Believing that online responses by Taiwanese represent part of public opinion, we take an online public opinion mining approach to explore the topic modeling of online discussions over this issue. When discussing U.S. armed force activities around the Taiwan Strait, the findings show five major topics that Taiwan's netizens focus on:(1) TaiwanSino-U.S. game;(2) activities for seeking independence;(3) strategic evaluation;(4) risk of war, and (5) policy on freedom of navigation. This article contributes to artificial intelligence, machine learning, and corpus approaches to present national strategic studies that previously mostly used constructed approaches. Regarding the theoretical applications, we provide a new research approach for risk communication on strategies studies, extending its theoretical scope to national strategic studies. Moreover, we demonstrate that online public opinion toward risk perceptions and military activities of the government can address the vital issue of public support toward national defense strategies. We also found that U.S. military activities influence Taiwanese people's perception of war risk and negative emotions expressed online. This means that their online emotions significantly influence their propensity to support public policies. They also tend to confirm their negative feelings toward the PLA's military activities."