糧食安全與貿易自由化關係之研究：以改革開放後的中國為例

On the Relationship between Food Security and Trade Liberalization: A Case Study of China after Reform and Opening

中國自1978年改革開放以來，隨著快速的工業化與城市化的發展，國家糧食安全與糧食自給率的確保一直受到高度的重視。然隨著2001年加入世界貿易組織，國際農產品貿易日趨熱絡，糧食自給率逐漸下降，因此引發一個問題，即中國糧食安全程度是否逐漸惡化？糧食安全與貿易自由化是互補關係，抑或是互斥關係？本研究利用經濟學人信息社（Economist Intelligence Unit，以下簡稱：EIU）建構的全球糧食安全指標（Global Food Security Index，以下簡稱：GFSI）及相關資料庫，考慮負擔能力、供應能力、品質與食品安全等三個面向，來衡量中國的糧食安全程度及趨勢演變。研究結果顯示中國改革開放40年來GFSI指標呈正向成長趨勢，整體指標漲幅達約3倍，說明中國糧食安全表現持續大幅進步。其次，本研究分別根據改革開放後GFSI與糧食自給率兩個指標之變化，與農產品關稅、農業貿易依存度等中國貿易自由化相關指標之變化來進行比較，並計算其相關係數，結果發現中國的貿易自由化雖與糧食自給率呈顯著負相關，而卻與中國的GFSI糧食安全指標呈顯著正相關，顯示改革開放後貿易愈加自由化，中國愈加有較高的糧食安全。國際農產品貿易以有餘補不足，為因應氣候變遷或糧食危機的一種很重要的調適策略，貿易自由化與糧食安全的互補關係值得我們正視。GFSI糧食安全指標強調從上中下游乃至消費者的整個糧食供應鏈的角度來衡量一國的糧食安全，而糧食自給率指標僅從上游生產者的角度來衡量，有失偏頗。糧食安全不等同糧食自給率，本研究結果凸顯從不同構面，尤其是整個糧食供應鏈，納入糧食安全指標評估之重要性。

"Food self-sufficiency rate has been the major food security indicator for policy decision-making in China for a very long time. However, after reform and opening the country with increasing international trade, the self-sufficiency ratio of food has gradually decreased, which raises the question, is there a gradual deterioration of China’s food security? This study uses the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) constructed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), consisting of three sub-indexes, namely affordability, availability, and quality and food safety, to evaluate the food security of China. Of major importance is the adoption of the perspective of food supply chain in measuring food security. The results show that the GFSI of China has increased continuously during the past 40 years and the total score has increased by nearly 2 times, indicating that China’s food security performance has continued to improve significantly with trade liberalization.Furthermore, in order to analyze the relationship between trade liberalization and food security, we use the Spearman rank correlation method to calculate the correlation coefficients of food self-sufficiency rate, GFSI, agricultural product tariff and trade dependence. We find that China’s food selfsufficiency rate is correlated with trade liberalization negatively significantly. GFSI and trade liberalization are significantly and positively correlated, indicating that there is a positive correlation between food security and trade liberalization in China. This result highlights the importance of incorporating multi-dimensional indicators into the measurement of food security."