南韓與伊朗關係的美國因素

The US Factor in South Korea-Iran Relations

進入21世紀以來南韓對中國的經貿倚賴因中國崛起而不斷攀升，而南韓對美國的安全倚賴則因北韓擁有核武飛彈而不斷加深。而此時偏又遭逢美中兩超強的戰略推擠加劇，因而使南韓夾在兩超強的夾縫裡選擇的空間越來越有限，對外關係陷入前所未有的困境。文在寅（Moon Jae-in）時代的南韓與伊朗關係堪稱就是此一困境的殘酷縮影，前有美國鷹，後有中國龍，同時又面對伊朗地頭蛇的威脅，一個都得罪不起，一舉一動都涉及南韓國家利益的損益，文在寅政府所扮演的利益精算師角色真可謂是如履薄冰，步步維艱。本文主旨在探討文在寅政府與伊朗關係。首先將就南韓與伊朗關係做簡短的背景說明，繼而聚焦於文在寅總統時代南韓與伊朗關係的特徵，川普（Donald Trump）因素可謂是此時影響南韓與伊朗關係的最重要變數，其次則為文在寅政府外交政策的優先順位、對伊朗外交的考量與抉擇以及伊朗的回應與韓伊的互動。至於南韓與伊朗關係的未來，雖然美國仍是關鍵變數，但最大的制約因素則可能是來自中國的挑戰。

"The primary goal of this paper is to explore the US factor in South Korea-Iran Relations. It will begin with a background brief on the evolution of South Korea-Iran Relations since President Lee Myung-bak when the Obama administration imposed economic sanctions on Iran. Before the sanctions, Iran was South Korea’s fourth largest source of oil imports, however, after US sanctions took effect, South Korea’s oil import from Iran reduced by 40% in 2012. As a result, South Korea’s relationship with Iran turned out to be the biggest setback for Lee Myung-bak’s Middle East policy. With a nuclear agreement signed between Iran and six big powers in July 2015 and economic sanctions lifted in January 2016, President Park Geun-hye regarded Iran as a premium chance for South Korea to revitalize its economy, given the stagnated global economy. In May 2016, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his visiting South Korean counterpart Park Geun-hye signed 19 basic agreements to expand mutual cooperation over a variety of areas ranging from energy, transportation, water resources, ports to science and education, health, insurance, banking, customs. They agreed that Iran and South Korea “to boost their trade volume from the current $6 billion to $18 billion.” Iran's oil exports to South Korea have more than quadrupled to 400,000 barrels a day since sanctions were lifted in January 2016. Unfortunately, South Korea’s promising relations with Iran were short-lived, because U.S. President Donald Trump reimposed economic sanctions against Iran in August 2018. The 12th largest economy in the world is heavily reliant on China for the well-being of its financial state, but Seoul has to balance that with a security alliance with the US in front of a nuclearized North Korea. This put South Korea’s Moon Jae-in government in a very awkward position. For its security interest, Moon Jae-in have no choice but to reprioritize its Middle East policy sacrificing its economic relations with Iran while enhancing economic relations with US allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Consequently, South Korea is losing Iran to China in their competition in Iran’s imports and infrastructure projects."