當代美中衝突之溯源──探索性的結構性分析

The Design and Application of Behavioral Public Policy: Nudge-Based Intervention to Increase Colorectal Cancer Screening in Taiwan

本文以新古典現實主義，從「空間」、「認識理念」、「時間」等三個層次，以及「戰略」、「經濟」和「意識形態」三個面向，結構性的檢視了美中在川普任期四年中各項衝突發生的原因與意涵。以空間而言，雙方政治制度分歧以及對國際秩序要求的分歧，使得雙方衝突難免。綜合空間與認識理念，展現在時間層次上，進入美中的各面向的衝突。關鍵的因素不在於何時娓起，而是在於何時感受到威脅。以時間而言，崛起的中國已經是一個不可逆的事實。隨著時間的進展，中國各在經濟、軍事等方面的持續成長，都將縮小與美國的差距。亦即，中國在文化、世界觀、政權運作等許多意識形態的本質上，不僅與美國傳統的民主自由並不相容，也對美國利益產生威脅。本文驗證因為美中兩國的三個層次與三個面向分歧，成為結構性衝突。因此，美中之間的競爭與對抗不會隨著拜登當選總統或是Covid-19疫情結束而落幕，而是會持續性的競爭直到國際體系建立新秩序。

This article structurally examines the causes and implications of US-China conflicts from three levels of the spatial, temporal, and cognitive, as well as three dimensions of strategy, value, and economy by neoclassical realism in the past two years. In terms of the spatial, the differences in the political systems of the two sides and the differences in the requirements of the international order make conflicts unavoidable. In terms of the temporal, the rise of China is already an irreversible fact. As time progresses, China's continued economic and military growth will narrow the gap with the United States. The fusion of the spatial and temporal evolved at the cognitive level and entered the conflict of strategic dimension between the United States and China. The key factor is not the word of ''rise'', but the threat. Moreover, China is incompatible with the traditional liberalism in the nature of value systems with the US such as culture, world vision, and governmental operation. This article verifies that because the three-level conflicts between the United States and China combine the three-faceted conflicts, they become structural conflicts. Therefore, the competition and confrontation between the United States and China will not end with the signing of the trade agreement or the end of the Covid -19 epidemic, but will continue to compete until the international system establishes a new order.