兩岸爆發軍事衝突的可能與台灣因應作為之分析

An Analysis of the Probability of Cross-strait Military Conflicts and Taiwan’s Countermeasures

本文旨在分析中國會在何種情況下武力攻台？會採取哪些方式攻台？本文還將分析中國對於美國援台的基本想法，以及美國援台時的考量。作者認為，中國是否採取軍事手段犯台，端視北京對「台灣在武力進攻下屈服之可能性」的評估，以及台美合作的強度。前者決定北京的軍事手段選項；後者不僅影響動武與否的決斷，更直接影響中國犯台攻勢的成敗。台灣應當強化地面部隊基礎訓練，並且作好協助美軍來援的準備，使美國降低援台的躊躇及準備時間，增加美國援台時可採的選項和效率，對台灣的安全將有更大的貢獻。

This article is to analyze the scenarios and complying types of attack that China would launch to Taiwan as well as the United States’ concerns on providing Taiwan military assistance, and China’s fundamental thoughts and attitudes on responding the US military assistance to Taiwan. I argue that whether China would initiate a military operation to Taiwan depends on Beijing’s estimation to the possibility that Taiwan will yield under its military attack, and the strength of military collaboration in between Taiwan and the United States; the former will decide the choice of Beijing’s armed operation, while the latter will influence not only China’s decision on whether to launch an armed attack to Taiwan but also directly to the success or failure to its operation. Therefore, Taiwan should improve the basic trainings of its ground forces to get itself well-prepared for bridging the US military assistance at the time, which will make the United States less hesitated and more quickly and comprehensively prepared to assist Taiwan with its armed forces thereby giving Taiwan’s security more concrete assurance.