政策議程阻絕之非決策效果：臺灣2004年首度落實公投民主治理經驗的探討

Examining the Effect of Political Parties' Strategies of Policy Agenda Denial: An Analysis of the Taiwan's first Referendum in 2004

在臺灣的政治發展歷程中，2003年底《公民投票法》的通過，與翌年付諸施行，讓臺灣首度實踐雙元的民主治理機制。2004年公民投票的舉辦，不僅各界廣泛矚目，亦是臺灣公共政策運作與治理上的重要里程碑。然而，當時公投的舉辦具備諸多爭議，當中包括：以泛綠政黨為首的陣營訴求「臺灣第一次，世界都在看」、「民主寫歷史，公投護臺灣」等宣傳口號，希望凸顯此次公投選舉的重要意義，達到提升人民參與意願的動員效果；反觀泛藍陣營則訴求公投議題內容不當、錯誤援用法理源則、舉辦時機不適等理由，希望造成公共政策「議程阻絕」(agenda denial)之非決策效果。本文在此基礎之上，透過臺灣民眾實際參與首次公民投票之決策情況來分析，探究兩方陣營策略性操作此次公投選舉動員的實質效果。研究結果顯示：此次泛藍陣營操作政策議程阻絕的策略確實奏效，不僅獲得自身支持群眾的力挺，更重要的是相關論述也撼動了若干泛綠群眾的支持態度。臺灣此次實施公民投票治理機制的經驗，對未來的政策學習與制度運作，提供相當重要的資本。

At the end of 2003, Taiwan had its first opportunity to realize dual mechanisms of democratic governance by passing the laws of the Referendum Act. The first nationwide referendum in Taiwan, held on March 20 in 2004, not only attracted widespread attention, but was also regarded as a milestone for deepening Taiwan's democracy. However, its legality and constitutionality were much disputed. The supporting camp, including the Pan-Green Coalition campaigns, developed slogans like“the first referendum in Taiwan”and“writing Taiwan's democratic history, the referendum protects Taiwan”which hopes to highlight the importance of the referendum election and mobilize people's willingness to support this referendum. Meanwhile, the opposite camp, including the Pan-Blue Coalition, urged a boycott, citing that the referendum was illegal and unnecessary. This coalition attempts to initiate the non decision-making effect such as policy agenda denial. They accused this referendum of addressing improper issues, challenged its errors in legality and constitutionality, and claimed that it was an unsuitable time for a referendum. The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of political parties' strategies of policy agenda setting in denying the referendum in 2004. The empirical results show that the policy agenda denial strategies of the Pan-Blue camp do work, as the impacts not only focus on strengthening its party's loyal supporters' preferences, but are also useful for shaking or reshaping the preference of some Pan-Green camp supporters. Through such efforts, this study facilitates a better understanding on how the direct democracy of Taiwan's first nationwide referendum in 2004 functions well or not and also provides some clues for improving the institutional design of this mechanism in the future.