探討新冠狀病毒的趨勢分析

Explore the trend analysis of the new coronavirus

本研究以世界衛生組織（World Health Organization, WHO）網路公布的感染率及死亡率資訊，和澳洲智庫抗疫綜合分數為衡量標的，以人口特性、國家治理、曾染疫經驗、醫療普及程度、地理區域、經濟發展、政治政體等變數，運用統計檢定變數在疫情評估與推論之間差異。經本研究分析得知：人數越多，越不利對抗COVID-19疫情；國家治理指標對抗疫無顯著影響；曾感染H1N1國家，在防疫成效、感染率、死亡率上表現均較差；曾感染H5N1國家，在感染率、死亡率上表現則較好；若綜合多次染疫經驗，過去有染疫國家其綜合分數較差，感染與死亡人數也較多。「全球衛生安全指數」地理分區上，歐洲、非洲、大洋洲抗疫分數高於美洲；感染率方面，歐洲感染率高於亞洲、非洲、大洋洲，美洲高於非洲；死亡率方面，歐洲及美洲高於亞洲、非洲。「人類發展指數」及平均GDP越高，感染率及死亡率明顯上升；G7工業國，在抗疫成績上反而比其他國家差，死亡率也較高；G20工業國，在感染率及死亡率上高過其他國家；「威權體制」國家，在抗疫成績及感染率上無明顯差異，但在死亡率上顯著低於其他國家。

This study adopted the infection rates and mortality rates released by the World Health Organization, WHO, as well as Lowy Institute’s COVID Performance Index composite scores as measurement targets. Based on the category variables of demographic characteristics, national governance, previous experiences of epidemic diseases, popularization of medical treatment, geographic region, economic development, “political regime”, etc., the T-test and ANOVA were adopted to analyze the differences among the above category variables in pandemic evaluation and pandemic target inferences. The analysis results shows that the more people there are, the more unfavorable it is in fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic. The national governance indicator showed no significant impact on pandemic prevention. The countries with cases of H1N1 infection showed poorer performance in terms of pandemic prevention effectiveness, infection rates, and mortality rates; the countries with cases of H5N1 showed better performance in terms of infection rates and mortality rates. In summary of the multiple infection experiences, the countries with experiences of epidemic diseases in the past had lower composite scores and had more infected people and deaths. In the “Global Health Security Index”, the infection rates and mortality rates were inverse indicators; in terms of geographic zoning, the Lowy Institute Comprehensive Power scores for Europe, Africa and Oceania were higher than the Americas; in terms of infection rates, the infection rates in Europe were higher than Asia, Africa, and Oceania, while the infection rates in the Americas were higher than Africa. In terms of mortality rates, Europe and the Americas were higher than Asia and Africa. The higher the “Human Development Index” and average GDP, the significantly higher the infection rates and mortality rates; the G7 countries showed poorer Lowy Institute Comprehensive Power scores compared to other countries, with higher mortality rates; for the G20 countries, the infection rates and mortality rates were higher than other countries; for countries adopting an “authoritarian system,” the Lowy Institute Comprehensive Power scores and infection rates showed no significant differences, but the mortality rates were significantly lower than other countries.