貿易報復下的資源錯置分析──以中國太陽能產業為例

RESOURCE MISALLOCATION UNDER TRADE RETALIATIONS: CASE OF CHINESE SOLAR ENERGY INDUSTRY

以太陽能替代傳統化石能源發電一直為中國政府的產業政策重點，然而政府的強力介入也引發2011年「反傾銷」和「反補貼」的「雙反」調查。本文建立中國太陽能光電企業資料庫，並藉由計算中國太陽能廠商資源配置扭曲，將個別廠商資源投入扭曲程度加總成太陽能產業內的總資源錯置程度。計算結果顯示，中國太陽能產業在政府的保護補貼下存在相當程度的資源配置扭曲。實證結果也顯示，在「雙反」事件後，資源配置扭曲當中的「產出扭曲」分布改善，然而主要影響產業生產力的「資本投入扭曲」並無顯著變化，這樣的改變同時存在於國營與民營企業。總的來說，雖然「雙反」後產出扭曲改善，並減低資源錯置程度且提升產業生產力，但降低資本投入扭曲仍應是後續改善資源錯置問題的政策重點。

Solar energy has been the Chinese government's prime candidate to replace fossil fuels for electricity generation. To bolster the solar energy industry, the Chinese government set up a menu of incentive policies that led Chinese firms to expand production aggressively. Within several years, China swiftly dominated the global solar energy production market. However, Chinese firms' predatory pricing provoked retaliation from the U.S. and the EU with ''anti-dumping'' and ''countervailing'' investigations beginning in 2011. This paper constructed a firm-level panel dataset and measured the extent of resource misallocation prevalent in the Chinese solar industry between 2009 and 2014. Our results suggested that although substantial resource misallocation existed in 2009 and 2010, the Chinese solar industry's misallocation had improved afterward. This occurred mainly because of the improvement in output distortion patterns among Chinese firms. However, through our decomposition exercise, we found that capital distortions played a more critical role in explaining the Chinese solar industry's production loss. This suggested that to advance its solar energy industry further, focusing on curtailing capital distortions should be the Chinese government's priority.