石油與天然氣蘊藏量揭露資訊與未來盈餘預測之研究

Earnings Predictability and Oil and Gas Reserve Disclosures

"本文探討美國石油與天然氣產業上市公司財務報表附註之三種蘊藏量認列會計（Reserves Recognition Accounting, RRA）資訊是否有助於預測未來盈餘，及其未來盈餘預測性在不同會計方法下是否存在差異。實證結果發現：（1）探勘成功法下，RRA標準化衡量具未來盈餘預測能力；且反應係數高於全部成本法下。（2）已探明蘊藏量不具未來盈餘預測性；然將其區分為已開發與未開發後，全部成本法下之已開發與未開發之蘊藏量具未來盈餘預測性；探勘成功法下則僅已開發之蘊藏量具未來盈餘預測性；且兩會計方法下，已開發蘊藏量的未來盈餘預測反應係數皆高於未開發蘊藏量。（3）全部成本法下，相較於開發期間超過五年，開發期間未超過五年之未開發蘊藏量之未來盈餘預測反應係數較高。"

This paper investigate whether the three types of Reserves Recognition Accounting (RRA) disclosures are useful to predict future earnings for US-listed oil and gas companies, and whether the future earnings reaction coefficient (FERC) for RRA under full cost method (FC) and successful effort method (SE) is significant different. The empirical results: (1) RRA standardized measurement is useful for predicting future earnings under SE, and the FERC for it under SE is higher than FC. (2) PR isn't useful for predicting future earnings under both accounting methods. However, the subtypes of PR, namely PDR and PUDR, are both useful for predicting future earnings under both accounting methods; moreover, under FC, only PUDR is useful for predicting future earnings. Under both accounting methods, the FERC is higher for PDR than for PUDR. (3) Under FC, PUDR with a development period of less than 5 years had a higher FERC than PUDR with a development period of more than 5 years.