台灣股價加權指數與香港恆生指數相關性之研究

Study of the Correlations between Taiwan Stock Index and Hang Seng Index

本文採用OLS線性迴歸分析方式，最重要的是在於替香港恆生指數解釋出一個漲跌幅的時機。資料設定日期為2019年6月12日至2019年11月14日的恆生指數日資料做為原始資料運用，檢驗結果顯示香港恆生指數對於臺灣加權指數、政治因素不確定性的因素短期走勢都呈現一致的負向關係。特別的是，本文不僅以基本迴歸模型做為基礎並加以時間修正，同時也將研究對象的主要加權指數納入為控制變數，大幅改寫成為新的股價解釋模型。除此之外，本文模型非常有利於完整地探討，香港反送中、臺灣在野黨內初選、以及香港金融管制等重大事件發生前後，香港股市對臺灣股市的消長變化。

This paper, the way OLS linear regression analysis, the most important thing is that an explanation for the timing of Price's Hang Seng Index. Data set the date for the Hang Seng Index Daily Data June 12, 2019 to November 14, 2019 as the raw material used, the test results show that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to Taiwan Weighted Index, political uncertainty factors short-term trend they have shown a consistent negative relationship.In particular, the paper not only to the basic regression model as a basis and make time correction, the study will also be included as a weighted index of major control variables, significantly rewritten into a new model to explain the share price. In addition, this model is very conducive to fully explore, in Hong Kong against send, within Taiwan opposition party primaries, as well as Hong Kong and other major financial controls before and after the event, the Hong Kong stock market growth and decline of Taiwan's stock market occur.