颱風來襲：影響台灣地方民選首長停班停課決策之因素

Responding to Typhoon Risk: Factors That Influence Taiwan’s Local Elected Officials’ Suspension Decisions

面對天然災害的威脅，政府首長有責任警示或要求民眾採取避災措施，以保障其生命財產安全，然而由於災害風險通常具有不確定性，政府首長須在資訊不完整的情況下做出決策。台灣經常遭遇颱風侵襲，地方民選首長依法在颱風來襲之前決定是否停班停課，以降低災害風險，保護轄區民眾安全。本文旨在探索可能影響台灣地方民選首長停班停課決策的因素。本研究對十九位地方民選首長、政治幕僚、行政官員、專家等決策參與者進行半結構式訪談，歸納出五個影響因素，包括：颱風特徵、轄區的地理與社經條件、內部決策參與者的意見、外部利害關係人的壓力，以及首長個人的經驗知識與價值取向。研究結果顯示，地方首長的停班停課決策是一個動態與權衡利害關係的過程，需要同時考慮法規、管理效能以及政治聲望等多種課責壓力，本研究有助於進一步了解政府官員在面對複雜且不確定性的災害風險時的決策行為。

Local elected officials are expected to advise or mandate their citizens to take protective action when their communities face imminent risk. These decisions are challenging, as they must be made with imperfect information. This study identifies the factors that influence Taiwan’s local elected officials’ decisions to suspend public and school operations in response to impending typhoon risk. Through an analysis of data collected from semi-structured interviews with nineteen informants, this article reveals multiple interrelated factors that influence such decisions. These factors include (1) the storm’s strength, timing, speed, and path; (2) a jurisdiction’s geographical, economic, and social characteristics; (3) internal stakeholder factors; (4) external stakeholder factors; and (5) the elected officials’ experience, knowledge, and values. These factors contribute to the suspension decision process because officials are under pressure to meet legal, managerial, and political accountabilities. This study reveals the complexities associated with risk response decision making and contributes to our understanding of how public officials make decisions in uncertain situations.