社會福利機構之天然災害風險追蹤分析

A Longitudinal Study of Natural Disaster Risk Analysis of Social Welfare Institutions

本研究旨在提出老人福利機構及身心障礙福利機構這兩類社會福利機構之天然災害風險分析方法，並依此方法比較其2011年（第一期）與2017年（第二期）之風險變化。本研究提出二步驟災害風險分析方法，第一步利用危害、暴露與環境脆弱度作為地震、坡地災害與水災風險分級的依據，第二步再依據分級結果，檢視中高風險機構的社會脆弱度，並提出策略分析建議。研究發現，無論是地震災害風險、坡地災害風險，抑或是水災風險，老人福利機構與身心障礙福利機構，第二期屬於高風險的機構，比率皆較第一期低；社會脆弱度部分，則以「是否有規劃機構外收容地點」此一問題，第二期較第一期，有規劃者比率明顯提高，亦即相關脆弱度有明顯之下降。本研究提供之機構災害風險分析方法及面向，可作為擬定提升機構災害管理能力及策略之參考依據；在不同時間點，利用此方法進行調查並比較結果，亦可瞭解相關政策之成效。

This study aims to propose a natural disaster risk analysis method for two types of social welfare institutions: welfare institutions for the elderly and the disabled, and to compare their risk changes in 2011 and 2017 according to this method. This study uses a two-step disaster risk analysis method. The first step is to take hazards, exposure and environmental vulnerability as the basis for earthquake, slopeland disaster and flood risk classification. In the second step, based on the classification results, it examines the social vulnerability of medium and high risk institutions, and offers strategic suggestions. Whether it is earthquake disaster risk, slopeland disaster risk, or flood risk, the ratio of welfare institutions for the elderly and disabled which were classified as high risk in 2017 is lower than in 2011. As for the social vulnerability, compared with 2011, more institutions had shelter plans in 2017, which means the related vulnerability decreased significantly. The methods and aspects of institutional disaster risk analysis provided by this study can be used as a reference for formulating and improving institutional disaster management capabilities and strategies. Besides, using this method to conduct surveys and compare results at different times can also provide insights into the effectiveness of relevant policies.